by tyler | Mar 27, 2023 | CNN, europe
While the fury of conflict echoes across the eastern Donbas region, a very different war is being waged in Crimea: one of night-time explosions, sabotage and disinformation.
Reclaiming Crimea may seem like an unlikely quest for Ukraine but it is putting considerable effort into making Russia’s occupation as uncomfortable as possible. And the Russians are going to great lengths to fortify the peninsula, which they illegally annexed in 2014.
That includes hiring legions of workers to build fortifications and trenches.
The Ukrainian military has been carrying out attacks in Crimea with two goals: harass the Russian Black Sea fleet and disrupt vital Russian supply lines.
Satellite imagery in February showed a substantial Russian build-up of equipment and armor at several points across northern Crimea.
Few details emerge about Ukrainian strikes in Crimea. Only occasionally does unofficial social media video provide clues about what has been hit. And only occasionally do normally circumspect Ukrainian officials refer to any actions in Crimea.
This is part of the conflict that is fought largely in the shadows, a far cry from the brutal attritional warfare that rages across Donbas.
But last week Ukraine’s Main Intelligence reported that explosions in the Crimean town of Dzhankoi were due to a strike against Russian Kalibr cruise missiles being transported via rail. It said the strike served to “demilitarize Russia and prepare the Crimean peninsula for de-occupation.”
There’s no way to confirm that Kalibrs were destroyed. But Russia did launch an inquiry “into a recent drone attack repelled by Russian air defense systems near the city of Dzhankoi,” which is one of the main hubs for Russian equipment moving through Crimea.
Kalibrs would be a high priority target given the havoc they cause when fired by the Black Sea fleet at targets in Ukraine.
Two days after the Dzhankoi explosions, the night sky above Sevastopol – the home of the Black Sea fleet – was lit up by air defenses. Social media video showed a large explosion in the harbor area. The governor of the city said a Ukrainian attack using marine drones, not the first against the port of Sevastopol, had been foiled.
These strikes do not presage a Ukrainian plan to retake Crimea, even if that remains a distant goal for President Volodymyr Zelensky. But the peninsula is an artery through which Russia pushes troops and weapons into southern Ukraine, as well as being the defensive rear for Russian forces still holding part of Kherson region.
Ukrainian officials say that the Russians have begun mining part of the Dnipro river delta to impede any landings in southern Kherson. Most days, there are dozens of artillery and rocket strikes by Russian forces across the river into Ukrainian-held areas of Kherson.
There are also occasional acts of sabotage inside Crimea by unknown actors. Russian media reported an attempt to blow up a gas pipeline in the city of Simferopol this month, which caused an explosion and fire.
The Ukrainian Resistance Center, an official agency, claimed in February that partisans had sabotaged a railway in Bakhchisaray near Sevastopol; pro-Russian social media showed modest damage to tracks.
The extent of any partisan movement in the peninsula is unclear; at most it’s an irritant to the Russian-backed authorities – for now. There are occasional reports from the Russian-appointed authorities about the arrest of infiltrators. The United Nations reported this week that it had documented 210 prosecutions in Crimea through the end of January on the grounds of “public actions directed at discrediting” and “obstructing” the Russian armed forces.
There are also occasional curfews in towns near Crimea, such as Chaplynka, through which Russian armor frequently passes – most likely to prevent any information being passed to the Ukrainian military. Ukraine alleged that last week the Russian National Guard raided Chaplynka and inspected locals’ documents, phones and vehicles.
Another aspect to the low-key conflict in Crimea is disinformation. Radio station frequencies have been hacked — for example recently to spread fake news about an order to evacuate the peninsula. There is a constant drip-feed of claims from Kyiv designed to unsettle Russians in Crimea. On Friday Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence spokesman, Andrii Yusov, said that officials from the Russian-backed administration in Crimea were rushing to sell their property and evacuate their families.
There is no independent evidence of an exodus of pro-Russian officials.
While any Ukrainian offensive to reclaim Crimea is at best distant, the Russians are taking no chances. Satellite imagery shows extensive defensive fortifications such as trenches close to or in Crimea, near the town of Armiansk, for example.
This month the Russian-appointed head of Crimea, Sergei Aksenov, said the creation of a fortification line in the peninsula was a guarantee of its security.
Denys Chystikov, a senior Ukrainian official with responsibility for Crimea, said Friday that fortifications are being built on the coast and near the border [with mainland Ukraine, but also deeper inside Crimea. “This is being done in order to show to local population that the peninsula is preparing to repel an attack.”
CNN reviewed online job postings for builders and carpenters that promised up to 7,000 rubles ($90) a day plus accommodation. One read: “Laborers wanted for fortifications, 3,000-7,000 rubles, per job completed, Krasnoperekopsk,” a town just inside Crimea.
A reporter with the Russian independent outlet Verstka was told that dozens of people were needed for the fortification work. The Ukrainian military has claimed that residents are also coerced to do the work and that defensive fortifications are being built between the towns of Ishun and Voinka in northern Crimea. A social media video appears to show the work in progress.
It may be a prudent move by the Russians. Ukrainian intelligence officials are on record as saying that a strategic goal of any counter-offensive this spring would be to cut the occupied corridor between Crimea and the Russian border along the Sea of Azov.
That would entail striking south towards Melitopol and into parts of Kherson adjacent to Crimea. Whether Ukrainian forces would try to enter Crimea is an open question. Much to Kyiv’s annoyance, some US officials are distinctly cool on such a prospect, feeling it would usher in unpredictable escalation. Gen. Mark Milley, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said earlier this year that “it would be very, very difficult to militarily eject the Russian forces from all – every inch of Ukraine and occupied – or Russian-occupied Ukraine.”
Anchal Vohra wrote recently in Foreign Policy magazine that “while isolating Crimea is one thing, entering, attacking, and holding such a heavily fortified region guarded by the Russian naval fleet is quite another.”
Just this week, the deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, Dmitri Medvedev, warned that Russia would use “absolutely any weapon” should Ukraine try to retake Crimea.
As the rumor mill about the goals of a possible Ukrainian counter-offensive later this spring intensifies, so does the appetite for what the Russians call maskirovka, the art of deception. Neither side has a monopoly on that.
by tyler | Mar 26, 2023 | CNN, europe
Vladimir Putin says he plans to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, the neighboring ally from which he staged part of his February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. When the Russian president uses the word “nuclear” the world pays attention and that appears to be a major reason why he said it.
As usual with Putin, the world should read the fine print and check the context. The weapons Putin plans to move to Belarus are not strategic nuclear weapons, those giant intercontinental ballistic missiles that, if fired, could end life on earth.
Tactical nuclear weapons are smaller, but powerful, and can be used on the battlefield. Putin has been threatening the possibility of nuclear war for the past year, especially when his military operation in Ukraine is faltering.
That could help to explain the context of Putin’s announcement. He’s a man with a lot of problems right now. Russian forces are bombarding Ukrainian cities from the air, but their ground war is not making much headway.
Aside from several new trade agreements with China, Putin didn’t get much out of his summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. If anything, Russia now appears to be China’s junior partner.
Then there’s the International Criminal Court and the arrest warrant it has issued for Putin.
Now, about that fine print.
Putin is blaming his decision on the other side, saying he made it in response to the United Kingdom supplying Ukraine with anti-tank ammunition that contains depleted uranium.
That, Putin charges, is a dangerous escalation. The UK denies this, explaining that the ammunition is used only for conventional purposes.
Putin says Russia already is constructing a storage facility for the tactical nukes that will be ready by July. He gave no specific date on which the tactical weapons would arrive.
What’s more, he notes, Russia already has 10 aircraft capable of carrying nuclear weapons, as well as several short-range Iskander missile systems that could carry nuclear weapons.
Significantly, the Russian leader said he will not transfer control of the tactical nuclear weapons to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who has been requesting the weapons for a long time.
That strikes two former US diplomats with whom I spoke as strange.
Lukashenko, they point out, signed an agreement in 1994 to give up the strategic nuclear weapons that Belarus still had at the end of the Cold War.
Why would he decide to do this? One diplomat points out that the weapons would have to be maintained by Russian forces who would be permanently stationed on Belarusian soil, a sign that Lukashenko is even more under Putin’s control.
The Biden administration appears unperturbed by Putin’s announcement. National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said the US is monitoring the implications of Putin’s statement but added: “We have not seen any reason to adjust our own strategic nuclear posture, nor any indications that Russia is preparing to use a nuclear weapon. We remain committed to the collective defense of the NATO alliance.”
And yet, moving Russian tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus moves them closer not only to Ukraine but to Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, all NATO allies.
That raises the threat level in Europe, something that Putin intended to do.
by tyler | Mar 26, 2023 | CNN, europe
Russia’s private military group Wagner has taken “full control” of the AZOM metallurgical plant in the north of the city of Bakhmut, according to video posted by Russian state media and verified by CNN.
“Wagner has full control of the territory of AZOM, the Artemivsk [Bakhmut] non-ferrous metal processing plant,” a correspondent for RIA Novosti said in a video, which captures Wagner fighters throughout the plant.
CNN cannot independently verify RIA’s claim and has reached out to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense for comment but is yet to receive a response.
Bakhmut has become a focal point of Russia’s invasion, with Moscow pressing hard to capture the city after failing to make major gains elsewhere.
The exact status of the battle for the city is unclear, but if confirmed Wagner’s claims would suggest Russia has made gains despite positive signals from Ukraine this week.
On Thursday one of Kyiv’s top generals said Russian forces are depleted in Bakhmut and a Ukrainian counter-offensive could soon be launched.
Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of Ukraine’s land forces, said on his Telegram channel that “[Russians] are losing significant forces [in Bakhmut] and are running out of energy.”
“Very soon, we will take advantage of this opportunity,” he said.
A counter-offensive has seemed an unlikely prospect for several weeks, as forces from Russia’s Wagner mercenary group bombarded Bakhmut and edged closer toward seizing control of the city.
But that effort has come at a considerable cost to manpower and resources, and now appears to have slowed.
Russian forces have been making incremental gains around the city, but Ukrainian forces are yet to retreat, creating a standoff that recalls drawn-out battles for other eastern cities such as Severodonetsk over the past year.
The city sits towards the northeast of the Donetsk region, about 13 miles from Luhansk region, and has been a target for Russian forces for months.
Since last summer the city has been a stone’s throw from the front lines, so its capture would represent a long sought-after success for Moscow’s forces – and bring some limited strategic value.
by tyler | Mar 25, 2023 | CNN, europe
A record of more than 2,000 migrants arrived on the Sicilian island of Lampedusa in the past day, an Italian official said on Saturday.
Some 1,778 people arrived on Friday, with another 267 people landing on seven small boats overnight Saturday, the official said.
Previous years have seen higher numbers of arrivals but never this early in the year in the space of a day.
Lampedusa, not far from Sicily and the closest Italian island to Africa, is a major destination for migrants seeking to enter European Union countries.
Charities rescued many of the boats. Under new rules from Italy’s right-leaning government, NGOs face fines for breaking a code of conduct.
The number of migrants arriving on Italy’s shores by boats more than tripled in the first two months of 2023, compared to the same period last year, according to Italy’s interior ministry.
On Thursday Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni blamed the rising figure on the “political situation” in Tunisia.
“900,000 people will arrive in Italy that Italy cannot welcome,” Meloni told the European Council, while asking for collaboration with European partners to accept migrants and help block departures from Turkey, Libya and Tunisia.
In February, a migrant shipwreck tragedy off the coast of Calabria in southern Italy killed more than 70 people.
Earlier this month, Meloni wrote to European leaders, saying it was their “duty, moral even before political” to prevent another such tragedy, and that a distinction needs to be made between migration and refugees.
“Confusing the two levels, as has often been done so far, is to the detriment of the most fragile and those in need of help. And that’s not right,” she said, adding the need for a single policy on refugees across Europe.
by tyler | Mar 24, 2023 | CNN, europe
A boom of artillery fire shook the ground as Olena opened the gate to the Kherson Children’s Home.
She barely flinched.
Russian positions are just across the Dnipro River and Kherson, a city in southern Ukraine, is under regular attack.
Like many Ukrainians during this war, Olena prefers not to share her last name. She has worked at the orphanage for more than 17 years.
Olena said she loved all the children at the home, but she was closest to Arkasha. “Of course, everyone has their favorite, but he was mine,” she said.
Five-year-old Arkasha’s locker is orange – with a sticker of a rooster on it. His name is neatly printed in Cyrillic script.
Inside the rooms, there are paintings of bunnies holding balloons, floating through the sky; play areas for toddlers; cupboards stacked with toys. In the bedrooms, sparkling clean cots and tiny bunk beds with brightly colored mattresses.
But the 48 children who lived here are gone – seized by Russian officials during the city’s months-long occupation.
“I feel emptiness, emptiness. Everything has stopped,” said Olena. “The children were happy. They had everything!”
When the war began in February last year, the staff at the children’s home came up with a plan.
They spirited all the children, mostly under 5, to the Holhofa church on the other side of town, Olena recounted.
The church and caregivers from the home kept the children safe and warm in the basement. They hid them to keep them safe from the fighting and to escape the Russians, said Olena.
Kherson fell to the Russian forces in the early days of the war. The invading troops moved swiftly over the Dnipro River; it was the first major city to be taken and the only regional capital.
“Yes, the children were here,” Victor, the 74-year-old caretaker of the church, told CNN. “But after the Russians occupied this city, they started asking questions.”
After a few weeks, he said, agents from Russia’s security service, the FSB, came to the church and demanded that the caregivers transport the children back to the orphanage.
The caregivers felt they didn’t have a choice. And it was then that Olena realized that the Russians wanted to take the children away.
“They kept saying, ‘these are our children,’” she said of the FSB agents.
In October, Russian officials informed the orphanage that they were coming for the children.
“They warned us to collect their clothes. The Russians called in the evening and said we should prepare the children for the next morning. The buses arrived at eight,” she said.
Just over a week ago, the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Russian President Vladimir Putin and Maria Lvova-Belova, the Russian Commissioner for Children’s Rights, saying they were criminally responsible for the “unlawful deportation and transfer of Ukrainian children from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation.” The Kremlin condemned the ICC decision.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently said at least 15,000 children had been taken out of Ukraine. Rights groups say many of them were coerced into leaving their parents and taken to so-called summer camps.
In occupied Kherson, the Russians didn’t hide their actions in taking the children from the Kherson Children’s Home.
In fact, they widely advertised the move and used it for propaganda purposes. Eventually, the incident could be used as evidence in a war crimes trial.
Shared on Telegram, the footage of that October morning shows bewildered children being shunted onto buses – away from their beloved nurses.
Olena said the nurses wrote the children’s names on their jackets or on their hands – so that at least they would be called by their real name wherever they went. The organizers said they were taking them to occupied Crimea. It’s not clear exactly where they ended up.
Ukrainian investigators have said orphans taken from occupied territory also ended up in Russia, where they were given citizenship and handed to Russian couples.
“They do not deserve our children. They should bring them back. They do not deserve them,” said Olena.
The Russians didn’t stop with the orphanages, they scoured Kherson for children to take.
Collaborators and Russian officials came repeatedly to the Kherson Regional Children’s Hospital asking for a list of orphaned babies and children that should be taken, said Dr. Olha Piliarska, a pediatric anesthetist.
According to Piliarska, staff at the hospital hid some orphans in the ICU basement and faked medical records for other children, indicating conditions including convulsions and fluid on the lungs.
She showed CNN a ventilator like the one in which they put a healthy baby, she said, and turned on some lights to make it appear that it could not be moved safely. They were all terrified that they would be found out, she recalled. Piliarksa and hospital administrators say they managed to save 15 children – three were taken away by Russian officials.
“We understood that they would not forgive us for this. We knew that there would be a serious retribution,” she said.
One nurse at the hospital took such efforts to thwart the Russians’ actions a step further.
Tetiana Pavelko kept going back to see a newborn called Kira, who’d won her heart. “From the beginning, I really loved her. She was such a beautiful child,” she told CNN.
Pavelko begged the hospital doctors and administrators to keep Kira off the list of children that collaborators regularly checked.
“Every day, the list was updated. And they made that list twice a day. I made sure that Kira was never on that list,” she recalled.
When Ukrainian soldiers took back Kherson from the Russians in November, Pavelko was allowed to take Kira home. She has started adoption proceedings, she said.
She, her partner and Kira live in a single-story house in Korabelny district, on the southern edge of Kherson. The neighborhood faces regular shelling from Russians across the river.
But Pavelko says that this awful war has brought her a gift.
“Kira means everything to me. Probably she is the meaning in my life in the first place. I don’t even know, to be honest, I can’t imagine my life without Kira,” she said.
