by tyler | Oct 9, 2023 | CNN, politics
Proof of Congress’ ongoing dysfunction is in its current paralysis.
Republicans have a few more votes in the House, but they don’t exactly have a governing majority.
So Kevin McCarthy is now the former House speaker, and it’s not at all clear when the two men actively trying to replace him – House Majority Leader Steve Scalise of Louisiana or the Donald Trump-endorsed Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio – will be able to unify the party and reopen the House. It will take near-total GOP unity to reopen the chamber.
The size of congressional majorities has generally shrunk in recent years, just as the country’s politics have gotten so much more tribal.
Since the “Republican Revolution” of 1994, only two majorities have exceeded 50 seats, compared with the previous decades when every Democratic majority exceeded 50 seats, usually alongside a series of Republican presidents.
There are plenty of reasons behind this era of small majorities, the first of which is that the country is closely divided and Congress, which is meant to be the “People’s House,” represents that divide.
But there’s more to it than that. Gerrymandered congressional maps are focused on protecting incumbents, which means fewer seats change hands, even when there is a shift in the country’s politics.
Despite anxiety about the economy and frustration with President Joe Biden, Republicans failed to gain many seats in the 2022 midterm elections, just barely eking out the House majority that’s giving them headaches today.
The lack of competitive seats makes it feel like we are stuck with a closely divided House and a closely divided Senate for the foreseeable future.
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter assigns a partisan score to every congressional district. A competitive, or swing, seat has a low score of between R+5 (leaning slightly Republican) and D+5 (leaning slightly Democratic).
The number of these competitive districts has been cut in half in recent decades, from 164 in the 1998 election to 82 in the 2022 election.
Cook’s recent assessment is that growing partisan divisions in the country – just as much as gerrymandering – is the cause.
In a disadvantage for Democrats, many of the states that have adopted nonpartisan systems to draw their congressional maps have seen a slower erosion of swing districts. It’s mostly Republican-controlled states that have embraced partisan redistricting that have fewer swing districts, according to Cook.
The end result is this partisan atmosphere, which seems to be getting more partisan every day and which rewards louder lawmakers on the fringes of the parties with fame and campaign cash.
Deal-makers frustrate those in their own parties but are still targeted by the opposing party.
One of McCarthy’s sins, in the eyes of the ultra-right lawmakers who were able to oust him, is that he relied on votes from Democrats to pass a short-term government funding bill. The partisan tone he took to placate the ultra-right lawmakers meant Democrats were never going to save his job.
McCarthy’s successor, whoever it is, will ultimately have to make a similar calculation next month, when government funding expires in November.
In the Senate, the seat most likely to flip in the 2024 election, according to CNN’s Simone Pathe, who regularly assesses the field, is that of West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin. He aggravates many more liberal Democrats, but he’s also a chief reason they have a Senate majority in the first place.
There is a moderate middle of lawmakers. More moderate Republicans, many of them representing districts that voted for Biden in the 2020 presidential election, are sore that moderate Democrats didn’t help avoid this mess by throwing McCarthy a few, consequential votes. But it’s hard to imagine any Republicans voting for a Democratic leader.
McCarthy’s swift exit was embarrassing and ugly for him, but deal-making to secure a leadership position is not a uniquely Republican thing. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s endgame was more elegantly executed, but it was an endgame nonetheless.
She had quieted progressive frustration two years earlier by agreeing to limit her leadership to four years, an agreement she honored when she stepped aside as Democrats’ leader after the 2022 midterm election.
When Pelosi was elected to what became her final term as speaker, in January 2021, she got just 216 votes, less than a majority of 218, in part because some people missed the vote and in part because some Democrats voted “present” to protest her.
It’s safe to assume these leadership fights will continue as long as the country is so equally divided that neither party has a solid governing majority.
by tyler | Oct 9, 2023 | CNN, politics
Republican Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s ongoing hold on military confirmations is impacting a number of senior military appointments in the Middle East, as the Pentagon moves to bolster its presence in the region amid the ongoing crisis in Israel.
And Tuberville is still not relenting, according to a spokesperson – not until the Pentagon revokes its policy of reimbursing service members for health care-related travel, which the senator has argued facilitates abortions.
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced on Sunday that he has ordered the US Navy’s Ford carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean, near Israel. The USS Gerald Ford is the Navy’s most advanced aircraft carrier and it is being deployed to the area, along with a guided missile cruiser and four destroyers, as a deterrence measure, Austin said.
But Tuberville’s blockade means that the current commander of the US Navy’s 5th fleet – which is responsible for US naval operations in the Middle East region including the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman – is still awaiting promotion to deputy commander of US Central Command, which oversees US forces and operations in the region.
The deputy commanders of both 5th fleet and US Air Forces Central are also included in Tuberville’s hold, as well as CENTCOM’s deputy director of strategy, plans and policy.
Last month, after a procedural threat from Tuberville, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer moved to have three key military promotions – the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Marine Corps commandant and the Army chief of staff – voted on separately rather than as part of a bloc of holds by Tuberville.
All three have since been confirmed, but Admiral Lisa Franchetti, nominated to serve as the chief of Naval Operations, is still awaiting confirmation and has been leading the service on an acting basis.
Pentagon leadership roles have had to be significantly reshuffled because of Tuberville’s hold. Many senior military officers are performing two jobs as they await promotion, and some key positions are being held by more junior officers because a more senior officer has not yet been confirmed by the Senate.
by tyler | Oct 9, 2023 | CNN, politics
Fundraising by Nikki Haley’s political operation improved in the third quarter, following her strong performances in the first two GOP debates and signs that donors are taking a closer look at the former South Carolina governor’s presidential bid, according to figures released Monday.
Haley’s campaign announced that she had raised more than $11 million in the July-to-September fundraising window – up from the $7.3 million collected during the previous quarter by her campaign and affiliated committees.
Her haul still lags far behind the $45.5 million that former President Donald Trump’s campaign recently announced raising through his political committees. Additionally, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, another rival, has said his political operation brought in $15 million during the quarter.
But Haley’s campaign is touting the $9.1 million in cash on hand it says it has available for the homestretch to the first nominating contests, besting the $5 million that DeSantis’ camp said remained in his accounts for the primary faceoff.
The former UN ambassador’s campaign said she has attracted nearly 40,000 new donors in the third quarter alone.
“We have seen a big surge in support and have real momentum,” Haley spokesperson Olivia Perez-Cubas said in a statement. “Nikki is emerging as the candidate who can move America beyond the chaos and drama of the past and present, and we have the resources we need to do it.”
The New York Times first reported Haley’s fundraising totals.
In a sign of fresh donor interest in Haley’s campaign, officials from her camp and DeSantis’ team have been invited to attend a gathering of major Republican donors later this week, according to a source familiar with the conclave.
The event organized by the American Opportunity Alliance is slated for Thursday and Friday in Texas, according to a Republican strategist close to the alliance.
The group’s members are among some of biggest names in Republican financial circles, including hedge fund billionaires Paul Singer and Ken Griffin, real-estate developer Harlan Crow and some members of the Ricketts family – whose patriarch, Joe Ricketts, founded the brokerage giant TD Ameritrade.
NBC first reported on the donor gathering.
The Texas meeting comes as some Republican donors voice growing concerns about Trump’s dominance over the rest of the Republican field – and Haley and DeSantis seek to position themselves as the main rivals to the former president.
All candidates must file details on their fundraising and spending during the third quarter by the end of the day October 15.
by tyler | Oct 9, 2023 | CNN, politics
Nine US citizens have died in the conflict in Israel, US authorities said Monday, and an unknown number remain missing.
“At this time, we can confirm the death of nine U.S. citizens. We extend our deepest condolences to the victims and to the families of all those affected, and wish those injured a speedy recovery. We continue to monitor the situation closely and remain in touch with our Israeli partners, particularly the local authorities,” the spokesperson said in a statement.
The spokesperson added, “We continue to monitor the situation closely and remain in touch with our Israeli partners, particularly the local authorities.”
State Department spokesman Matt Miller told CNN’s Phil Mattingly on Monday that US authorities are in close contact with Israel’s government and the families of those affected by the attack.
US authorities have been scrambling to establish how many Americans have been killed or taken hostage in the conflict. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told CNN’s Dana Bash on “State of the Union” Sunday that the US was “working overtime” to verify reports of missing and dead Americans, and Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer said Americans are among the “scores” of hostages being held in Gaza.
Qatar has been in talks with Hamas about the hostages the terror group is holding inside Gaza, and the US has been coordinating with the Qataris as they play a key mediating role with Hamas, a senior US official and another person familiar with the discussions told CNN.
US officials at the White House and State Department, including Blinken and Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf, have remained in touch with the Qataris throughout the weekend as they communicate with Hamas. CNN has reached out to the governments of Qatar and Israel for comment.
The US has also pledged to provide additional military support in the coming days, though domestic political dysfunction could hamper the response.
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced on Sunday that he has ordered the US Navy’s Ford carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean, near Israel. The USS Gerald Ford is the Navy’s most advanced aircraft carrier and it is being deployed to the area, along with a guided missile cruiser and four destroyers, as a deterrence measure, Austin said.
But the current commander of the US Navy’s 5th fleet, which is responsible for US naval operations in the Middle East region including the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman, is still awaiting promotion to deputy commander of US Central Command, which oversees US forces and operations in the region following a hold by Republican Sen. Tommy Tuberville over military confirmations.
Meanwhile, as the Biden administration looks to provide additional assistance to Israel, officials were unsure over the weekend about what could be accomplished without a sitting speaker. Acting Speaker Patrick McHenry has little power outside of recessing, adjourning or recognizing speaker nominations, and it’s unclear whether he can participate in intelligence briefings on the crisis.
Administration officials said they will look to the current $100 million in Presidential Drawdown Authority, which allows the rapid dispatch of weapons from existing stocks, to send more aid immediately, according to a person familiar with the discussion. The drawdown will likely need additional funds from Congress, the officials told lawmakers.
This story has been updated with additional reporting and background information.
by tyler | Oct 9, 2023 | CNN, politics
House Republicans remain badly divided over their two choices for speaker in the aftermath of the ouster of Kevin McCarthy from the speakership – and are bracing for the possibility that neither House Majority Leader Steve Scalise nor House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan can get the 217 votes needed to be elected speaker.
The deep uncertainty has heightened talk in GOP circles that a dark-horse candidate could emerge, as McCarthy himself refused on Monday to rule out a return to the speakership if Scalise or Jordan fail to win the votes to assume the most powerful position in Congress.
“I’m going to allow the conference to do their work,” McCarthy said repeatedly at a Monday news conference, refusing to publicly endorse Scalise or Jordan for the job.
The comments – and the 11th-hour talk of a McCarthy comeback, which is still seen as a long-shot – underscore the deep turmoil that exists this week as Republicans struggle to coalesce behind a speaker following last week’s unprecedented events when eight Republicans joined with Democrats to remove McCarthy from the speakership. Moreover, Republicans are in active talks to raise the threshold needed for the number of votes to win the conference’s nomination for the speakership – a key issue that could hobble Jordan’s or Scalise’s bid and could end with a new candidate altogether.
The internal talks come as emotions remain raw after McCarthy was ousted following a right-wing revolt after the California Republican relied on Democrats to help advance a short-term spending bill to keep the government open. On Monday, McCarthy had choice words for the eight GOP members, saying they “love the cameras” and were interested in “pettiness” – a sentiment echoed by many of his allies within the conference.
“Many will refuse to support who the eight ‘traitors’ coalesce around because they don’t want the 96% to give into the 4%,” one House GOP member told CNN. “Many refuse to reward the 4%.”
Rep. Mike Lawler, a freshman New York Republican, said that McCarthy “is the right person to lead,” and questioned whether anyone else can secure enough votes to win the speakership.
“Who can? Does anybody have the votes?” he asked as he walked into McCarthy’s office.
Some of the Republicans who voted to remove McCarthy are making clear they won’t back down as the California Republican leaves the door open to returning to the speakership, further underscoring the uncertainty inside the conference.
Rep. Tim Burchett of Tennessee told CNN, “We’re aren’t relenting.” Rep. Nancy Mace of South Carolina sent CNN a poll showing the majority of Americans and even Republicans support McCarthy’s ouster. And Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida compared McCarthy’s comments at his Monday news conference to a “death rattle.” He also tweeted “math is real” and “time to move forward.”
Mace and Gaetz have both already thrown their support behind Jordan.
“The most popular thing Congress has done since Kevin McCarthy became speaker was vacate him,” Mace told CNN.
Some centrist Republicans are now calling to restore McCarthy as speaker after the attacks on Israel, expressing concern the House remains paralyzed without a speaker and worried they won’t be able to coalesce around a new candidate quickly.
When asked if it’s feasible for McCarthy to return, another GOP lawmaker and McCarthy ally said it’s a “possibility” but said a lot will depend on how Monday’s House GOP conference meeting shakes out. Others speculated McCarthy would have to cut a deal with Democrats in order to prevail, which he refused to do last week.
If no one can get 217 votes to be elected speaker, it remains to be seen whether another candidate will emerge – and several Republicans are suggesting that remains a distinct possibility. Among the names floated in addition to McCarthy: Reps. Kevin Hern of Oklahoma, interim House Speaker Patrick McHenry of North Carolina and House Rules Chairman Tom Cole, also of Oklahoma.
The GOP conference meets Monday evening for the first time since last week. Then, there will be a candidate forum on Tuesday and an internal leadership election on Wednesday.
What could change the dynamics in the conference: Whether House Republicans adopt new rules to achieve the needed votes to become speaker.
Indeed, House Republicans are expected to debate Monday evening whether to make it harder for candidates to win their conference’s nomination for speaker – in an effort to avoid a protracted floor fight like the one that occurred after McCarthy won the gavel after 15 ballots in January.
The idea is to make sure that the internal squabbling happens out of public view and behind closed doors, so the candidate can emerge from the conference with enough votes to be elected speaker on the first ballot.
The proposal is being pushed by Reps. Chip Roy of Texas and Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania – two members who represent opposite wings of the conference – and they are suggesting Republicans raise the threshold to win the nomination from a simple majority of the conference, which is 111 members, to a majority of the House – currently 217 with vacancies. Last week, 94 members sent a letter asking for that change to be formalized in the rules.
The strategy would prevent the conference from moving forward to the floor without enough consensus to actually elect a speaker. The thinking behind these tactics is that they could avoid the optics of round after round of televised failed House floor votes.
That means the candidate could only afford to lose four GOP votes before winning the conference nomination. But if neither Scalise nor Jordan can get the 217 votes internally, some say that’s when another candidate could emerge.
This story has been updated with additional developments.
by tyler | Oct 9, 2023 | CNN, politics
Environmental lawyer and presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced on Monday his independent candidacy for president, officially ending his effort to defeat President Joe Biden in the Democratic primary in favor of a long-shot general election bid.
“I’m here to declare myself an independent candidate for president of the United States,” Kennedy said in remarks in Philadelphia.
Kennedy’s announcement comes after several weeks of speculation about his future in the 2024 field. CNN previously reported Kennedy met with the chair of the Libertarian Party earlier this year to discuss their common beliefs. And last week, a super PAC supporting Kennedy’s presidential campaign released the results of a poll they conducted testing Kennedy’s strength in a hypothetical three-way race between Biden and former President Donald Trump.
The campaign will host a series of events in Texas, Florida and Georgia later this month, a campaign official told CNN, pledging to travel “everywhere” in the lead-up to next year’s general election. The official said the campaign is confident they’ll gain ballot access in every state ahead of November 2024.
Independent and third-party candidates have struggled in the past to garner substantial support in presidential elections. In 1992, Texas businessman Ross Perot mounted one of the most successful independent presidential candidacies in recent history, which ended with him receiving 8% of the vote in the general election that was ultimately won by Bill Clinton.
Kennedy’s campaign as an independent could further complicate a general election race that’s already expected to be closely contested. A Reuters/Ipsos poll of a hypothetical three-way race between Biden, Trump and Kennedy conducted last week among likely voters found 14% of voters supported Kennedy, with 40% supporting Trump and 38% supporting Biden. With over a year until the general election, it’s unclear whether the Kennedy campaign can translate that level of support into votes in November 2024.
“Voters should not be deceived by anyone who pretends to have conservative values. The fact is that RFK has a disturbing background steeped in radical, liberal positions,” Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung said in a statement that criticized Kennedy over his positions on China, guns, the environment and abortion. “… A RFK candidacy is nothing more than a vanity project for a liberal Kennedy looking to cash in on his family’s name.”
Trump’s allies and advisers have been building opposition research against Kennedy, intending to go on the offensive and paint Kennedy as a “liberal parading in conservative’s clothing,” one adviser told CNN, pointing to his past record as an environmental activist.
Kennedy first launched his campaign to defeat Biden in the Democratic primary in April and frequently visited early primary states like New Hampshire and South Carolina. But his efforts did little to sway Democratic primary voters, with just 9% of likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire expressing support for Kennedy in a CNN/University of New Hampshire poll released in September.
The Republican National Committee issued a statement just prior to Kennedy’s announcement, characterizing him as “just another radical, far-left Democrat.”
Kennedy is the son of former US Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy and nephew of former President John F. Kennedy. Some of his siblings issued a joint statement on Monday, calling his decision to run against Biden in a general election “dangerous to our country.”
“Bobby might share the same name as our father, but he does not share the same values, vision or judgment. Today’s announcement is deeply saddening for us. We denounce his candidacy and believe it to be perilous for our country, ” Rory Kennedy, Kerry Kennedy, Joseph P Kennedy II and Kathleen Kennedy Townsend said in a statement.
Kennedy has never held public office but has inspired a small contingent of supporters drawn to his advocacy against public health mandates and the influence of money on decisions made by government and private corporations. Kennedy founded Children’s Health Defense, an organization that regularly spreads anti-vaccine misinformation, and has promoted anti-vaccine conspiracy theories at campaign events.
Attendees at Monday’s event spanned the ideological spectrum, with conservatives, liberals and independents all gathering in Philadelphia for the announcement.
Walter Rodriguez, a teacher from New Jersey who identifies as an independent, said he plans to support Kennedy if he’s on the ballot in his home state. Otherwise, he said, he doesn’t plan to vote at all.
“I’m excited about the energy they bring to the table as a candidate, and I think some of the things that he’s talking about are things that I identify with,” Rodriguez said. “Not relying so much on central control of everything, pharmaceuticals, politics. So the fact that he’s declaring himself as independent today, that is the right way to go.”
Karl Hagstrom came to Philadelphia from Westchester County, New York. He said he supported Trump in 2016 and 2020, but said he plans to support Kennedy in 2024. He said he’s drawn to Kennedy because he feels the political outsider can bring unity to the country, unlike Trump, who he said has been too divisive.
“Just the constant insanity, the tweeting, the negativity, the just out-of-left field reactions to things. It’s not sustainable, it’s not something that can bring people together,” Hagstrom said.
Sarah Shulman drove to the event with a group of supporters from the Boston area. A practicing pediatrician, Shulman attended Kennedy’s Democratic campaign launch event in Boston in April and said Kennedy’s anti-corruption message and his position on vaccines inspired her to support him. She said she voted for Biden in 2020 and has never considered supporting a Republican but has felt disconnected from Biden’s message since he took office.
“He’s speaking our language,” Shulman said of Kennedy. “A Democrat, somebody in the liberal mind that’s compassionate, caring, who also is making sense.”
This story has been updated with additional reporting.
