by tyler | Sep 5, 2023 | CNN, politics
A federal court blocked a newly-drawn Alabama congressional map on Tuesday because it didn’t create a second majority-Black district as the Supreme Court had ordered earlier this year.
In a unanimous decision from a three-judge panel, which had overseen the case before it reached the Supreme Court, the judges wrote that they were “disturbed” by Alabama’s actions in the case.
The state had snubbed the Supreme Court’s order – a surprise 5-4 decision at the time – that the maps should be redrawn. White voters are currently the majority in six of the state’s seven congressional districts, although 27% of the state’s population is Black.
“We are deeply troubled that the State enacted a map that the State readily admits does not provide the remedy we said federal law requires,” the judges, two of whom were appointed by former President Donald Trump, wrote.
This redistricting battle – and separate, pending litigation over congressional maps in states like Georgia and Florida – could determine which party controls the US House of Representatives after next year’s elections. Republicans currently hold a razor-thin majority in the chamber.
The judges ordered a special master to submit three proposed maps that would create a second Black-majority district by September 25.
The panel wrote that they were “not aware of any other case,” where a state legislature had responded to being ordered to a draw map with a second majority-minority district, by creating which the state itself admitted didn’t create the required district.
“The law requires the creation of an additional district that affords Black Alabamians, like everyone else, a fair and reasonable opportunity to elect candidates of their choice,” and that Alabama’s new map, they wrote, “plainly fails to do so.”
JaTaune Bosby Gilchrist, executive director of the American Civil Liberties Union of Alabama, which has been fighting the case, praised the ruling: “Elected officials ignored their responsibilities and chose to violate our democracy. We hope the court’s special master helps steward a process that ensures a fair map that Black Alabamians and our state deserve.”
This summer, the Supreme Court, in a 5-4 ruling, had affirmed an earlier decision by the three-judge panel and ordered the state to redraw congressional maps to include a second majority-Black district or “something quite close to it.”
The Supreme Court’s surprise decision in Alabama – coming after the right-leaning high court has chipped away at other parts of the Voting Rights Act in recent years – has given fresh hope to voting rights activists and Democrats that they could prevail in challenges to other maps they view as discriminating against minorities.
But the map approved by Alabama’s Republican-dominated legislature – and signed into law by GOP Gov. Kay Ivey – in July created only one majority-Black district and boosted the share of Black voters in a second district from roughly 30% to nearly 40%.
The pending cases center on whether GOP state legislators drew congressional maps after the 2020 Census that weaken the power of Black voters in violation of Section 2 of the historic Voting Rights Act.
Republicans control all statewide offices in Alabama and all but one congressional seat. The single Black-majority congressional district is represented by Democratic Rep. Terri Sewell, the state’s first Black woman elected to Congress.
Alabama officials have argued that the map as redrawn by state lawmakers was aimed at maintaining traditional guidelines for congressional redistricting, such as keeping together communities of interest. And they have signaled interest in again appealing the issue to the high court, with the apparent hope of potentially swaying one of the justices that sided with the majority.
The state’s briefs before the three-judge panel referenced a concurring opinion by Justice Brett Kavanaugh – one of the two conservatives who sided with the liberal justices on the high court to vote against the Alabama map – that questioned whether “race-based redistricting” can “extend indefinitely into the future.”
The judges weren’t convinced by the state’s arguments..
They wrote that after reviewing the concurrence, as well as a part of the Supreme Court’s ruling which Kavanaugh didn’t join, “We do not understand either of those writings as undermining any aspect of the Supreme Court’s affirmance; if they did, the Court would not have affirmed the injunction.”
The judges also rejected Alabama’s argument that drawing a second Black-majority district would unconstitutionally constitute “affirmative action in redistricting.”
“Unlike affirmative action in the admissions programs the Supreme Court analyzed in [this year’s affirmative action case], which was expressly aimed at achieving balanced racial outcomes in the makeup of the universities’ student bodies, the Voting Rights Act guarantees only ‘equality of opportunity, not a guarantee of electoral success for minority-preferred candidates of whatever race,’” the panel wrote.
“The Voting Rights Act does not provide a leg up for Black voters — it merely prevents them from being kept down with regard to what is arguably the most ‘fundamental political right,’ in that it is ‘preservative of all rights’ — the right to vote.”
Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall had argued that a separate Supreme Court ruling in June – after the Alabama decision came down – that ended affirmative action in college admissions means that using a map in which “race predominates” would open up the state to claims that it is violating the 14th Amendment’s guarantee of equal protection.
This story has been updated with additional developments.
by tyler | Sep 5, 2023 | CNN, politics
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton pleaded not guilty Tuesday to 16 articles of impeachment that are up for consideration during his state Senate trial in Austin.
His pleas came after the GOP-led Senate rejected motions by Paxton’s team to dismiss the impeachment case, both in its entirety and individual articles, setting the stage for the trial of the embattled Republican, who is accused of abusing his office, to begin. Twelve Republicans joined all 12 Democrats in voting 24-6 to continue the trial. The state Senate also voted 22-8 against a motion to exclude all evidence before January 2023.
Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, a longtime Paxton ally who is presiding over the Senate’s trial, said Paxton – who has been suspended from his duties since his May impeachment – cannot be compelled to testify during the proceedings. He described the process as similar to a criminal trial.
Paxton’s not guilty pleas, delivered by his attorney Tony Buzbee, came just ahead of a lunch break on the proceedings’ opening day.
Later Tuesday, representatives of the Texas House – which voted 121-23 in May to impeach Paxton after he requested $3.3 million in state funds for a settlement with former staffers who had accused him of abusing his office to benefit a friend and donor – and Paxton or his representatives will each have an hour to deliver their opening statements.
Paxton is a firebrand conservative who has aligned himself with former President Donald Trump. Following the 2020 election, he sued in a failed effort to overturn Trump’s loss to Joe Biden, seeking to have the electoral college votes of four swing states won by Biden thrown out. He has so far survived a series of scandals since taking office in 2015, though he remains under indictment in a separate securities fraud case.
He has described his impeachment as a “politically motivated sham” and has consistently denied wrongdoing.
In 2020, top Paxton aides published a letter accusing the attorney general of abuse of office, bribery and improper influence – complaints centered on Paxton’s ties to donor and friend Nate Paul.
Four of the former staffers later sued the attorney general’s office, claiming they were fired in violation of the state’s whistleblower law. In February, Paxton agreed to a settlement in which he did not admit fault and the whistleblowers would be paid $3.3 million. He asked state lawmakers to fund that settlement.
The House impeachment managers have already submitted nearly 4,000 pages of evidence, unveiling more details in the extraordinary accusations that Paxton pressured his top aides to take steps that would benefit Paul, a real estate investor.
Paxton is accused of accepting $20,000 in countertop materials from Paul through a contractor during a remodeling of his home.
Also included in the allegations is that Paxton had a mistress, whom Paul hired as a favor to the attorney general, and that Paxton would use an alias – “Dave P” – on Uber to meet up with the mistress, as well as Paul.
Paul was arrested in June on eight federal felony charges related to falsifying financial records, and his lawyer has repeatedly declined comment to CNN.
There are 19 Republicans in the 31-member Texas Senate. One of them is Paxton’s wife, Angela Paxton, but she is not eligible to vote at the trial.
If the 21 of the remaining 30 eligible senators vote to convict Paxton, he would become the third person ever removed from office in Texas via impeachment proceedings.
The trial is expected to last two or three weeks. It is taking place in the Texas Senate chamber, with some observers filing in to watch early Tuesday morning.
Mark and Cindi Montgomery of New Braunfels began lining up at the Capitol doors before daylight so they could get passes to sit in the gallery and show their support for Paxton.
“It’s a sham impeachment,” said Mark Montgomery. “He was elected by the people.”
Cindi Montgomery said they booked their hotel in Austin months ago, as soon as they learned the trial date.
Mark Montgomery said he was aware of Paxton’s securities fraud indictment and the other allegations against him when he voted to reelect Paxton last year.
“He’s standing up for Texas,” he said, adding that he appreciates Paxton’s lawsuits against the federal government.
Several dozen Paxton supporters lined up early to sit in the gallery, many of them wearing red.
When Ken and Angela Paxton each walked onto the Senate floor Tuesday morning – at separate times – a few people in the gallery called out to them, and the couple waved back and smiled.
They chatted briefly on the floor before the proceedings began and gave each other a kiss.
This story and headline have been updated with additional information.
by tyler | Sep 5, 2023 | CNN, politics
Former President Donald Trump continues to hold what has proven to be an unshakeable position atop the Republican field of candidates vying to take on President Joe Biden next year, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.
Trump is the top choice for his party’s nomination at the traditional Labor Day start to a more engaged campaign season, ahead of his nearest rival by more than 30 percentage points (52% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independent voters support him, compared with 18% behind Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis). And Trump is broadly seen as best able to handle a wide range of issues.
More than 4 in 10 in the potential GOP primary electorate say they have definitely decided to support him for the nomination (43% are definite Trump backers, 20% are firmly behind another candidate, and 37% have no first choice or say they could change their minds). Nearly two-thirds consider him one of their top two choices, and 61% say they think he is extremely or very likely to become the party’s nominee, up from 52% at the start of the summer. Most feel the criminal charges Trump faces are not relevant to his ability to serve as president, and a majority of GOP-aligned voters are not seriously concerned about the impact the charges could have on Trump’s electability.
Despite these dominant numbers, the poll does suggest his appeal has waned for at least some segment of the party. Around 1 in 5 Republican-aligned voters say they would not support Trump in the primary under any circumstances and 16% say the charges he faces related to his role in the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol are disqualifying if true – but that segment remains a minority and has not consolidated around any single Trump rival.
The poll — conducted entirely after the first GOP debate in August, which Trump did not attend – finds DeSantis the only other contender to reach double-digits, although his backing has dipped 8 points since June. Behind him, former Vice President Mike Pence and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley hold 7% support each, with businessman Vivek Ramaswamy at 6%. South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott has 3% support, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has 2%, and the rest of the tested field stands at 1% or less.
Trump’s standing in first-choice preferences has rebounded since CNN’s June poll, though the share calling him one of their top two choices or rating him favorably both remain lower than this spring. He’s up 5 points overall as voters’ first choice, including apparent upticks among White college-educated voters (up 6 points since June), and self-identified Republicans (up 10 points). But the 63% of all GOP-aligned voters placing him in their top two remains about where it was in June (61%), a step lower than in May (68%), as does his overall favorability rating with that group (69% now, 77% in May). In the new poll, a 94% majority of Trump’s supporters view him favorably, but that falls to just 42% among those not currently supporting him in the primary.
A minority, 44%, of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they are seriously concerned that the criminal charges Trump faces will negatively affect his ability to win the 2024 election if he becomes the Republican nominee, while 56% are not seriously concerned about that. A third of those who back Trump have those concerns (34%), rising to 54% among Republicans supporting another candidate.
Republican-aligned adults are less concerned, though, that Trump’s legal fights will negatively affect his ability to serve another full term as president if reelected (32% are seriously concerned about that) or to be an effective president if elected while facing criminal charges (35%).
Broadly speaking, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say that, if true, the charges Trump faces across four criminal cases are not relevant to his fitness for the presidency (70% say so regarding the charges related to hush money payments to an adult film actress, and 64% each say the same about charges related to classified documents, efforts to overturn the 2020 election, and related to his role in January 6.)
And most, 61%, say that Trump faces so many criminal charges largely because of political abuse of the justice system (14% feel his situation is largely due to his own actions, while 25% say it’s hard to tell before trials are held).
Among the public more broadly, however, about half say that the January 6-related charges (51%) and the charges related to efforts to overturn the 2020 election (48%) should disqualify Trump from the presidency if true. A similar 47% feel that Trump faces so many charges largely as a result of his own actions, while just 31% see the number of charges as due primarily to political abuse of the justice system.
When asked to name their biggest concern about Trump as a candidate, Republican-aligned voters largely do not cite his legal woes. Just 6% name the indictments he’s facing or his legal situation, and 3% mention worry that he could be convicted or imprisoned. Overall, 18% say they have no concerns about Trump as a candidate or offer a positive comment about him. After that, 8% say their biggest worry is that his opponents will attack him or not work with him, 8% that they are concerned about “his mouth,” tact and abrasiveness, 7% that he’s too disliked and treated unfairly, and 6% name his ego or arrogance.
There are wide differences in this question between those who back Trump now and those supporting other candidates. Nearly 3 in 10 Trump backers say they have no concerns (29%), 12% mention opposition attacks, 8% that elections are rigged against him, 7% that he’s too disliked, 6% his tact level and 5% the indictments. By contrast, some of the top concerns about Trump among Republican-aligned voters who support others are dishonesty and corruption (11%), his tact level (9%), his ego or arrogance (9%), electability (9%), indictments (8%) and erratic or unstable behavior (7%).
Candidate preferences more locked in now than in previous cycles
Republican-aligned voters in the poll who have a first-choice candidate broadly say that policy positions matter more than character and personal traits in deciding their vote – 77% feel their candidate’s positions on the issues are the main reason for their support. Just 14% say they are deciding because of a candidate’s character and personal traits and 8% due to dislike of the other choices. Those behind Trump are almost universal in saying it’s driven by the issues: 89% say so, compared with 63% among those who back other candidates.
Trump is widely seen as best able to handle each of the eight issues tested in the poll. The closest any other candidate comes to reaching Trump on the issues is DeSantis on education and school policies, where he trails Trump by 20 points. Still, there is some variation in the degree of trust Republican-aligned voters place in the former president over his rivals. Majorities see Trump as best able to handle the economy (69%), immigration (65%), the situation in Ukraine (63%), limiting government overreach (59%) and crime and safety (54%). About half see Trump as best on climate and energy policies (49%), with fewer naming him on abortion (44%) and education and school policies (42%). DeSantis lands as a clear second behind Trump on nearly all of these issues, with two notable exceptions. On Ukraine, Haley (at 8%), Pence (7%) and DeSantis (7%) cluster behind Trump, while on abortion, DeSantis (at 14%) and Haley (13%) form a second tier.
All told, 63% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters now say they will definitely support their first-choice candidate, while 37% could change their minds or have not chosen any candidate. Those figures are broadly driven by Trump’s supporters – 83% of whom say they’ve made up their minds compared with 43% of those who pick another candidate as their first choice — and suggest that nomination preferences are significantly more locked in now than in previous cycles, according to CNN polling. In October 2019, just 43% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters were as firmly decided on the next year’s presidential primary, and even as late as January 2016, only about half (49%) of Republican and Republican-leaning voters said they were locked in to their first choice.
Ramaswamy’s standing improves while DeSantis loses ground
The poll suggests only a slight shuffling since the first primary debate in the race for second place. While 67% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters who watched or closely followed news about the event said it was helpful to them in deciding whom to support, the candidates rated as performing best appear to have gotten only a minor boost, if any, in their overall backing.
Those who followed it said Ramaswamy (30%) and DeSantis (28%) had the best night, with Haley (20%) not far behind. Coming out of the debate, those who followed it also said DeSantis (51%) and Ramaswamy (46%) are the candidates they’d most like to hear more about. Around 4 in 10 also want to hear more about either Haley (40%) or Scott (37%).
But Ramaswamy is the only debate participant whose standing in the race has shown significant improvement since June, rising from just 1% support to 6%. Haley has been steadily between 5% and 7% in each CNN poll on the race, with Scott between 2% and 4%, while DeSantis has lost meaningful ground over the summer.
Among moderate and liberal GOP-aligned voters, DeSantis held a clear second place to Trump in June (22% backed him); second place in this group is now a tie between DeSantis (12%) and Haley (12%). Among conservatives, DeSantis has also lost ground (from 28% in June to 20% now), but the rest of the non-Trump field remains in single digits with that group.
Most GOP voters say they either support or would consider supporting Trump (81%), DeSantis (78%), Scott (63%), Haley (63%) and Ramaswamy (58%). There have been few changes in this metric for Trump, Scott or Haley over the course of CNN’s polling since May, but the share willing to consider DeSantis has dipped 7 points in that time while the share willing to consider Ramaswamy is up 10 points.
Half or more have ruled out Pence (50%, up 5 points since May), Burgum (58%, about the same as 60% in June, the first point for which CNN has full trend for Burgum), Hutchinson (61%, up 6 points since May) and Christie (66%, up 6 points since May).
The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS from August 25-31 among a random national sample of 1,503 adults drawn from a probability-based panel, including 784 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who are registered to vote. The survey included an oversample to reach a total of 898 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents; this group has been weighted to its proper size within the population. Surveys were either conducted online or by telephone with a live interviewer. Results among the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 points; among Republican and Republican-leaning voters, the margin of sampling error is 4.4 points.
by tyler | Sep 5, 2023 | CNN, politics
Former Proud Boys Chairman Enrique Tarrio is scheduled to be sentenced by a federal judge Tuesday for leading a failed plot to forcibly prevent the peaceful transfer of power from then-President Donald Trump to Joe Biden after the 2020 election.
Prosecutors are seeking a 33-year prison sentence for Tarrio which, if given, would be the longest sentence related to the January 6, 2021, US Capitol attack.
Tarrio was arrested in Washington, DC, days before the riot for burning a DC church’s Black Lives Matter banner and bringing high-capacity rifle magazines into the district, and was ordered by a judge to leave the city.
Tarrio is the last of five Proud Boys defendants to be sentenced. He and three other members of the Proud Boys leadership were found guilty of seditious conspiracy. A fifth member was acquitted of the seditious conspiracy charge but was found guilty of a range of other charges.
District Judge Timothy Kelly has consistently gone far below previous Justice Department sentencing requests for Proud Boys members convicted in this case.
Kelly sentenced Ethan Nordean and Joseph Biggs, two of the far-right organization’s top lieutenants, to 18- and 17-year prison sentences, respectively. Zachary Rehl, a local Proud Boys chapter leader, was sentenced to 15 years behind bars, while Dominic Pezzola, a low-level member and the only defendant acquitted of the seditious conspiracy charge, was sentenced to 10 years in prison.
During the months-long trial, prosecutors showed evidence that Tarrio helped to create a command structure within the Proud Boys in the lead up to January 6 that dictated how members of the organization would work when attending high-profile rallies.
Though he was not in Washington, DC, on January 6, Tarrio expressed his support for the rioters online and was in touch with his co-defendants on the ground, prosecutors said.
Biggs and Nordean, who assumed leadership in Tarrio’s absence, led the charge at the Capitol, prosecutors said. The Proud Boys were at the front of the mob, breaking past barriers and the police line and smashing windows to let rioters inside the historic building in the first breaches that eventually led to Congress evacuating and temporarily halting the certification of the 2020 presidential election results.
by tyler | Sep 5, 2023 | CNN, politics
The Capitol’s attending physician, Brian Monahan, said in a new letter that Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell did not suffer a stroke or seizure – and is not suffering from Parkinson’s disease – after the 81-year-old Kentuckian was evaluated by a group of neurologists following two recent health scares in front of TV cameras.
The new letter, released by McConnell’s office Tuesday, comes after he froze in front of cameras for the second time in as many months, raising questions about whether the GOP leader could continue to hold his powerful position atop the Senate GOP Conference. After he froze last week in Covington, Kentucky, McConnell was evaluated by four neurologists, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Monahan said in the Tuesday letter that he consulted with McConnell’s neurologists and conducted several evaluations, including brain MRI imaging and a test that measures electrical imaging in the brain.
“There is no evidence that you have a seizure disorder or that you experienced a stroke, TIA or movement disorder such as Parkinson’s disease,” the letter said.
It’s still unclear exactly why McConnell froze up for roughly 30 seconds each time.
The Republican leader’s office had attributed the two frozen moments to “lightheadedness,” and Monahan had indicated in a previous letter that it’s “not uncommon” for victims of concussion to feel lightheaded. McConnell suffered a concussion and broken ribs after falling at a Washington hotel and hitting his head in March, sidelining him from the Senate for nearly six weeks.
The note comes as the Senate returns to session Tuesday after a five-week recess and as GOP senators are expected to face questions about whether they believe the Republican leader can continue leading his conference as he has for the past 16 years – longer than any party leader in Senate history. McConnell is expected to continue to stay through this Congress as leader, but there are growing questions about whether he will continue to serve in the next Congress, which begins in 2025.
This story and headline have been updated with additional developments.
by tyler | Sep 5, 2023 | CNN, politics
There are two Republican primaries as an election season that defies conventional metrics and campaign trail traditions crashes into its fall stretch.
A new CNN/SSRS poll shows a one-man race out front involving Donald Trump, a former president polling higher than all his rivals put together but whose onrushing train of criminal trials increases the possibility that the GOP could nominate a convicted felon.
Well below is the contest in which there is only one candidate in the teens (Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis) and where candidates aren’t piling on the front-runner but instead the political neophyte Vivek Ramaswamy, who has gotten under their skins and is making a mockery of their campaigns.
Unless someone in the brawl for a distant second place can climb into the top tier sometime in the next four months and consolidate opposition to Trump – a feat most have never even dared to attempt – the ex-president may enjoy a GOP coronation. This is despite the fact that in what could, according to current signs, be a tight rematch between Trump and President Joe Biden, the ex-president faces significant vulnerabilities among swing voters in the crucial handful of states likely to decide the general election.
The CNN poll shows Trump leading the way with 52% of Republican primary voters and GOP-leaning independents, ahead of DeSantis with 18%. No other candidate is in double figures.
Respondents said that issues are more important than personality in deciding their vote – and Trump is seen as the best candidate to tackle concerns like Ukraine, immigration and crime and justice. These are questions on which the ex-president has built his tough-talking outsider appeal. He transformed the GOP in his populist, nationalist image, even if he failed to enact far-reaching reform in many areas when he was president. The poll, and previous surveys this campaign season, show that even despite his attempts to trash US democracy to stay in power four years ago, Trump’s stranglehold on his party is as dominant as ever. This helps explain why his rivals have been so reluctant to attack him – and why their efforts to set themselves up as an alternative have so far failed.
The stasis in the Republican nominating contest at the traditional post-Labor Day acceleration point will have profound national implications. Trump has already convinced millions of his supporters that he is the current legitimate president after his false claims of fraud in the 2020 election. An ex-commander in chief who lionizes autocrats is promising a presidency of “retribution” and a quest to strip away many of the constraints on a president’s power.
But first, Trump’s bid to overturn his 2020 election loss could face accountability in criminal trials in Washington, DC, and Georgia that could ultimately cost him his freedom but that could also cause him to fight for a White House return as a convicted criminal. Trump is also set to face another two trials next year – over his alleged mishandling of classified documents and arising from a hush money payment to an adult film star.
This week alone, legal dramas will swirl around a slate of Trump associates and co-defendants, and while unlikely to change the trajectory of the election or Trump’s own legal fate, those developments will deepen the extraordinary legal stench surrounding his camp. Former Trump trade official Peter Navarro goes on trial Tuesday in Washington, charged with contempt of Congress after refusing to cooperate with subpoenas from the since-disbanded House select committee that investigated January 6, 2021.
And several officials who allegedly aided a conspiracy to overthrow the 2020 election are due to be arraigned in Fulton County, Georgia, on Wednesday. Trump last week waived his right to appear in person, but the campaign is still reverberating from the GOP front-runner having his mug shot taken at the Fulton County jail last month – which he has turned into a rallying issue for supporters who view him as a hero. Also on Wednesday, in an unrelated matter, Trump has been called for a deposition in a lawsuit he’s brought against his former attorney Michael Cohen.
These legal dates only further the growing impression that the most important events in the 2024 election are likely to unfold in courtrooms and jury boxes rather than at state fairs in Iowa and town halls in New Hampshire, where Trump’s GOP rivals are seeking to break out from the pack as his main challenger, even if they’re unwilling to attack him directly.
Yet the CNN poll shows that GOP voters are not too concerned that Trump’s legal woes will hurt him in a general election. Most say the charges against him are not relevant to his fitness to serve as president. And six in 10 see the cases against him as motivated by political abuse of the justice system.
This unprecedented clash between the electoral and legal systems may not be the full extent of the political maelstrom that rages as November 2024 approaches. House Republicans are moving ever closer to an impeachment inquiry against Biden, ostensibly seeking to establish links between his conduct as vice president and the business activities, including in Ukraine and China, of his son Hunter. So far, Republicans have failed to produce conclusive evidence that Joe Biden was directly involved, corrupt or profited from any deals.
But any impeachment inquiry would also clearly be rooted in an effort by Republicans to blur the significance of Trump’s two impeachments and to create an impression that corruption is endemic in Washington politics.
And a fledgling movement started by some conservative legal scholars could see some liberal states seek to bar Trump from the ballot by making a constitutional argument. The 14th Amendment prohibits people serving in federal office who previously took an oath to protect the Constitution but who engaged in “insurrection or rebellion” against it. Any attempt to stop Trump from standing for election in some states would almost certainly end up before the conservative majority of the Supreme Court. And even if it is legally justified, such an effort could create a political storm that could backfire and play into Trump’s campaign theme that he is being persecuted by Democrats trying to keep him out of the White House.
One of the ironies of what is shaping up as the most unusual election of modern times is that Trump’s primary rivals are running conventional campaigns. And they are all struggling with the same conundrum – how do they defeat a front-runner whose support has appeared only to solidify following his quadruple indictments?
All of this has failed to vault any of these contenders into the top tier with Trump, or to woo significant numbers of the front-runner’s supporters away from his authoritarian populism. Many of the candidates in the second tier appear to be running for the nomination of a Republican Party that may not even exist anymore. The latest CNN poll shows that behind Trump and DeSantis, the field is confined to single digits. Pence and Haley are at 7%. Ramaswamy has 6%, Scott has 3% and Christie has 2%. National polls do not necessarily reflect the situation in early voting states like Iowa and New Hampshire which can be important in shaping the field, but Trump’s lead in the CNN poll is largely mirrored in surveys of the first nominating contests.
Given these numbers, why would Trump drop his boycott and attend the second GOP presidential debate at the Ronald Reagan library in California later this month? His absence would only further perpetuate the reality of two separate GOP primaries.
A candidate of the future?
The buzz and coverage that Ramaswamy, who has never held elected office, has conjured since he was center stage at the first Republican debate in Wisconsin last month suggests that he may have understood the dynamics of what a post-Trump Republican Party might look like better than his more experienced rivals.
His proposals are radical and even fantastical – for instance, claiming that he could negotiate a wedge between Russia and China or that, unlike Pence, if he were vice president on January 6, he would have forced a new national consensus to transform the election system into single-day voting with the use of paper ballots. Ramaswamy’s plan to essentially gut US government bureaucracy would likely cause severe economic disruption and political chaos. But his rhetoric acknowledges the reality that contempt for government elites and foreign policy experts – or even facts and logic – is what sells in the Trump-era GOP. Since he’s pitching for the same pool of voters that the ex-president has locked up, the 38-year-old isn’t likely to win the nomination. But he might pave the way to a future in the GOP.
Some analysts caution that it is still early in the primary campaign and that many voters don’t start tuning in until late in the year. And if some candidates don’t break out soon, they may see fundraising dwindle in a way that could thin the field and consolidate opposition to Trump. Still, as the calendar turns to fall, the first balloting in January comes into closer focus. And there is no sign that any of Trump’s major opponents have come any closer to challenging one of the sources of his strength among his most faithful supporters – the lie that he won in 2020 and that prosecutions of his abuses of power are politically motivated.
But New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, who passed on his own 2024 Republican bid, dismisses national polls and argues that the state-by-state tradition of American elections could still trip Trump up and eventually reduce the field to a single strong rival who could beat him.
“You have to let the process play out. And I think the key is winnowing down that field,” Sununu said on NBC News’ “Meet the Press” on Sunday. “We had 13 candidates a month ago. We have eight or nine today. I think we’ll have five or six by the time Iowa comes, maybe three or four by New Hampshire. And then, when it’s one-on-one, Trump’s in trouble. And he knows that.”
Former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican who now co-chairs the “No Labels” group that is considering putting up a third-party candidate next year, warned that Republican candidates with no chance of winning need to get out now.
“If you’re in there running for vice president, or you’re trying to be a Cabinet secretary, or you’re trying to become famous, or write a book, or get on television, you should get the heck out of the race,” Hogan said on CBS News’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday. “We need to narrow it down to find a leader who can get the Republican Party back on the right track and that could get us back to winning elections again,” Hogan said.
“And it’s not going to happen with 11 people in the race.”
