by tyler | Mar 31, 2023 | CNN, weather
A rare “high risk” Level 5 out of 5 alert has been issued for parts of the Midwest and Mid-South, impacting nearly 3 million people, the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center said Friday.
High risk areas include portions of southeastern Iowa, northwestern Illinois and northeastern Missouri, and includes places like Davenport, Iowa, and Iowa City. The second area is farther south and includes portions of eastern Arkansas, northern Mississippi and southwestern Tennessee. Memphis, Tennessee, is included in the high risk area.
“Environmental conditions are quickly becoming favorable to support the potential for numerous strong to potentially violent and long-track tornadoes,” the center said.
High risk days are exceedingly rare and are “reserved for when high confidence exists in widespread coverage of severe weather with embedded instances of extreme severe” weather such as violent tornadoes or extreme damaging winds, according to the storm center.
The last Level 5 high risk day occurred on March 25, 2021, when numerous tornadoes were reported across the Southeast.
Additionally, severe storms are expected to sweep across some central and southern states beginning Friday afternoon, bringing the threat of several strong tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds to nearly 90 million people across 21 states.
Tornado watches have been issued for 13 million people, stretching from southern Arkansas to northern Iowa until 8 p.m CDT. These tornado watches have been labeled a “particularly dangerous situation” by the Storm Prediction Center.
“Parameters are favorable for the potential for strong/violent tornadoes and very large hail,” the storm center said.
Know the difference between a tornado watch and tornado warning
A moderate, Level 4 of 5, risk of severe storms stretches from northern Mississippi to Iowa, including Indianapolis, Indiana, Little Rock, Arkansas, Des Moines, Iowa, and St. Louis.
“At least a few long-track, strong to potentially violent tornadoes are probable, particularly over portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Mid-South,” the Storm Prediction Center said. “Swaths of intense damaging wind gusts along with very large hail are expected as well.”
Track the storms here
Some of the tornadoes may be EF-3 or higher, meaning they would have winds of at least 136 mph.
Overall, the moderate risk area covers 10 million people.
“We are concerned about strong tornadoes and widespread damaging winds,” Bill Bunting, chief of forecast operations at the Storm Prediction Center, told CNN, noting the storms will be fast-moving. “We’ve been trying to stress, don’t wait until you see visual cues of the storm approaching, take action when warnings are issued.”
“Residents are advised to remain weather-aware and have multiple ways to receive weather alerts,” the Weather Prediction Center said. “Along with the severe weather threat, storms may also contain intense rainfall rates that could last long enough to produce isolated-to-scattered areas of flash flooding.”
The severe weather outbreak is expected to begin Friday afternoon and go into the evening, forecasters said. Tornadoes or severe storms occurring at night have the greatest potential to be dangerous because people are less likely to be notified in time if they’re asleep.
Last week, an overnight tornado leveled nearly the entire community of Rolling Fork, Mississippi, where estimated maximum winds of 170 mph roared through. In total, at least 26 people were killed and dozens injured as the powerful storm system moved through the Southeast.
Meanwhile on Friday, a slightly weaker enhanced risk for severe storms, Level 3 of 5, is in place for areas including Chicago, Nashville, Tennessee, Cincinnati, and Louisville, Louisiana. The main threats are isolated long-track tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail.
A Level 2 of 5 slight risk of severe storms extends into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and includes Columbus, Ohio, Kansas City, Missouri, and Milwaukee.
There is also a marginal risk of severe storms, Level 1 of 5, that extends from northeastern Texas to southern Minnesota and east to Michigan and West Virginia.
Cities under that alert are Dallas, Detroit, Cleveland and Atlanta. The main threats are isolated tornadoes, high winds and isolated large hail.
Some of the areas still cleaning up from last week’s storms could face more severe weather Friday, and forecasters warn the conditions could be intense.
“The fact that you missed the worst storm last week doesn’t mean that that fortune will hold Friday,” Bunting said.
“We’ve seen these patterns before where there is just a repeat of severe weather in generally the same area,” Bunting said. “We can’t change past outcomes, but what we can do is encourage everyone to be ready for the next one.”
Bunting stressed that having a plan before the storm strikes could save your life.
“We’ve just been trying to encourage people to, if you don’t, have a severe weather plan. If you’ve never thought you needed one, we’re in an active situation that’s going to continue to be active next week, now’s the time.”
by tyler | Mar 31, 2023 | CNN, weather
Severe storms are expected to sweep across some central and southern states beginning Friday afternoon, bringing the threat of several strong tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds to nearly 90 million people across 21 states.
A moderate, Level 4 of 5, risk of severe storms now stretches from northern Mississippi to Iowa, including Memphis, Tennessee; Little Rock; Arkansas; Des Moines, Iowa; and St. Louis.
“At least a few long-track, strong to potentially violent tornadoes are probable, particularly over portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Mid-South,” the Storm Prediction Center said. “Swaths of intense damaging wind gusts along with very large hail are expected as well.”
Track the storms here
Some of the tornadoes may be EF-3 or higher, meaning they would have winds of at least 136 mph.
Overall, the moderate risk area covers 10 million people.
“We are concerned about strong tornadoes and widespread damaging winds,” Bill Bunting, chief of forecast operations at the Storm Prediction Center, told CNN, noting the storms will be fast-moving. “We’ve been trying to stress, don’t wait until you see visual cues of the storm approaching, take action when warnings are issued.”
“Residents are advised to remain weather-aware and have multiple ways to receive weather alerts,” the Weather Prediction Center said. “Along with the severe weather threat, storms may also contain intense rainfall rates that could last long enough to produce isolated-to-scattered areas of flash flooding.”
The severe weather outbreak is expected to begin Friday afternoon and go into the evening, forecasters said. Tornadoes or severe storms occurring at night have the greatest potential to be dangerous because people are less likely to be notified in time if they’re asleep.
Last week, an overnight tornado leveled nearly the entire community of Rolling Fork, Mississippi, where estimated maximum winds of 170 mph roared through. In total, at least 26 people were killed and dozens injured as the powerful storm system moved through the Southeast.
Meanwhile on Friday, a slightly weaker enhanced risk for severe storms, Level 3 of 5, is in place for areas including Chicago, Indianapolis, Nashville, Cincinnati, and Louisville, Kentucky. The main threats are isolated long-track tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail.
A Level 2 of 5 slight risk of severe storms extends into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and includes Columbus, Ohio; Kansas City, Missouri; and Milwaukee.
There is also a marginal risk of severe storms, Level 1 of 5, that extends from northeastern Texas to southern Minnesota and east to Michigan and West Virginia.
Cities under that alert are Dallas, Detroit, Cleveland and Atlanta. The main threats are isolated tornadoes, high winds and isolated large hail.
Some of the areas still cleaning up from last week’s storms could face more severe weather Friday, and forecasters warn the conditions could be intense.
“The fact that you missed the worst storm last week doesn’t mean that that fortune will hold Friday,” Bunting said.
“We’ve seen these patterns before where there is just a repeat of severe weather in generally the same area,” Bunting said. “We can’t change past outcomes, but what we can do is encourage everyone to be ready for the next one.”
Bunting stressed that having a plan before the storm strikes could save your life.
“We’ve just been trying to encourage people to, if you don’t, have a severe weather plan. If you’ve never thought you needed one, we’re in an active situation that’s going to continue to be active next week, now’s the time.”
by tyler | Mar 28, 2023 | CNN, weather
A powerful Pacific storm moving inland Tuesday is set to bring more rain, snow and damaging winds to California, a state already waterlogged from at least 12 atmospheric rivers that have delivered a barrage of rain and snow in recent months.
Several inches of rainfall is possible over the central California coast and as the moisture moves into higher elevations of the state it will turn to snow, the Weather Prediction Center said. Between 1 and 3 feet of snow is likely in the northern coastal ranges and the Sierra by Wednesday.
More than 8 million people along the central California coast are under a slight, Level 2 of 4, risk of excessive rainfall Tuesday, renewing the threat of flash flooding.
At this time in a normal year, this type of atmospheric river storm would bring beneficial precipitation to the region. But given the unprecedented amount of rain and snow California has already received over a prolonged period, the storm will exacerbate flooding issues, bring down weakened trees and add more snow to already record levels.
Cities including Oakland, Monterey and Big Sur are on track to hit their top three wettest Marches on record by the end of this week.
“Preceding storms have saturated soils which will result in trees coming down and the potential for more power outages,” National Weather Service San Francisco Meteorologist Roger Grass told CNN.
“We still have road closures in the mountainous areas because of the sheer number of landslide and rockslides since we have been impacted by so many storm systems,” Grass said.
The impacts of this storm are further complicated by strong winds.
More than 10 million people are under a wind advisory in California and Oregon with gusts expected between 45 and 55 mph on Tuesday.
Because of the strong winds, near whiteout conditions are possible in parts of Northern California near Mount Shasta where 1 to 3 feet of snow could fall. Winter storm warnings are in effect for this region and other parts of California through Wednesday.
Amid the rain and snow, much of California will see highs in the 50s Tuesday, with some areas possibly tying or breaking daily records for the lowest high temperatures.
Statewide, the snowpack in California for the Sierras is currently at 228% of its normal amount for this time of year and this storm will only increase that margin. The Southern Sierras specifically have reached record levels, while the Central Sierra likely will by the end of the winter season.
by tyler | Mar 27, 2023 | CNN, weather
Another round of violent weather is battering the Southeast on Monday after a spate of tornado-spawning storms over the weekend killed 26 people in the South – including a 1-year-old baby and her father.
From Houston to South Carolina, more than 20 million people are at risk of severe storms Monday.
“Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and frequent lightning will remain the primary risks throughout the day today but isolated tornadoes could still be possible,” CNN Meteorologist Haley Brink said.
There’s also a threat of dangerous flooding throughout the region.
“Due to the repeated rounds of heavy rainfall over the weekend and today, bouts of heavy rainfall could lead to instances of flash flooding across the Southeast,” Brink said.
Parts of the South repeatedly walloped by recent storms have seen 4 to 6 inches of rain over the last few days – and could get deluged with another 1 to 3 inches Monday.
Track the system here
Atlanta – which had already been pummeled by hail and up to 2 inches of rain overnight – could get another 2 inches of rain – leading to a risk of flooding.
Ethan Herndon and his 1-year-old daughter Riley were killed when their mobile home was struck by a tornado that hit Mississippi on Friday night, family member Walter Edington said.
The family learned Ethan was dead but Riley was still missing, Edington said. “So about a dozen of us went over there to help look for the baby,” he said.
Around 2:30 a.m. Saturday, a first responder told the family that Riley had been found dead, Edington said.
The baby’s mother, Herndon’s wife Elizabeth, suffered a broken arm, a broken leg and a dislocated hip, Edington said.
The couple’s two other children were also injured but survived the tornado that devastated the community of Wren.
The National Weather Service in Memphis rated the tornado that hit Wren and nearby Amory as an EF-3 tornado – with estimated wind gusts between 136 and 165 mph.
Herndon was a Navy veteran and worked at a RV dealership to support his family, Edington said.
Elizabeth Herndon dedicated her time to taking care of Riley, who had been born prematurely and had several health issues, Edington said.
“They were really devoted to their daughter, Riley. She was the center of their home,” Edington said. “The family has been through a lot previously. I have a lot of respect for them. They are emotionally and physically shattered.”
Edington started a verified GoFundMe to help with the family’s recovery. “They have suffered the most painful and terrifying loss any of us can imagine, and their needs are obvious and great,” Edington wrote on the fundraiser’s page.
The South has suffered an onslaught of destructive weather since the weekend. At least 10 confirmed tornadoes struck Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee on Friday night, according to storm surveys by various weather service offices.
Preliminary reports suggest 25 people were killed in Mississippi – prompting President Joe Biden to approve a disaster declaration for parts of the state. Another storm victim was killed in Alabama.
In Rolling Fork, Mississippi – home to about 2,000 people – an especially violent tornado obliterated houses, businesses and city buildings.
“Homes have been totally demolished,” Rolling Fork Vice Mayor LaDonna Sias told CNN on Monday. She said her own home was also destroyed.
Sias and her husband survived by hiding in a closet just before the EF-4 tornado – with estimated wind gusts of 166 to 200 mph – shredded their house.
“He pushed me in … his closet, and he was able to close the door,” Sias said. “And the minute he closed the door, the force … he was just constantly trying to hold the door so it wouldn’t come open. And you could literally hear the house ripping apart.”
Despite the loss of her own home, Sias said she’s focused on helping other residents – including those who have lost loved ones.
“The hardest part is having to witness someone that has lost a loved one and then having to talk to people that were residents here but have been displaced due to this disaster,” Sias said. “It’s hard. It’s overwhelming. And it’s heart-wrenching.”
Search and recovery efforts were still underway in Mississippi on Sunday as emergency personnel also worked to distribute critical resources, including bottled water, portable restrooms, batteries and fuel, the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency said.
Some Rolling Fork neighborhoods and businesses were so badly hit there was “not any immediate shelter anywhere” on Sunday, Sharkey County District 1 Supervisor Bill Newsom told CNN.
“Everyone is affected. Entire subdivisions and neighborhoods … some are just wiped away, they’re just not even there,” Newsom said.
“It looks like a battle zone.”
The vice mayor said she is the most concerned about finding support for the families who have lost loved ones and are facing “total devastation.”
“We need to make sure that those people that are displaced, that no longer have any type of structure – they need immediate housing. They need some kind of assistance,” Sias said.
Teams from the Federal Emergency Management Agency have been deployed to Mississippi, and the agency will work with state officials to find interim housing for those impacted, the Department of Homeland Security said.
Resident David Brown’s parents, Melissa and Lonnie Pierce, were both killed Friday when a tractor-trailer was picked up by the tornado and thrown on top of their home, CNN affiliate WAPT reported.
“Words can’t express how I’m feeling. I don’t know – broken,” Brown told WAPT.
Brown said his son could have been in the home if he had not picked him up before the storm.
His family spent the weekend sifting through the crushed residence, searching for any salvageable reminder of his parents.
“Honestly, if I can find anything in the rubble,” he said, “it would mean more than anything.”
The National Weather Service in Atlanta has clarified that the Heads Creek Dam in central Georgia has not failed, citing Spalding County emergency management officials.
“There has not been any failure or breach of the Heads Creek Reservoir in Spalding County. We are only experiencing overflow from the excessive rainfall and activating the Emergency Action Plan out of an abundance of precaution,” the weather service office in Atlanta said Monday.
A flash flood emergency is still in place. The weather service said it is coordinating with state and local officials and communicating the potential flood threat in the area.
“Because the Emergency Action Plan was activated, using the word ‘imminent’ and not ‘potential’ failure, the FF Emergency was used,” the weather service said.
Previously the weather service had said a flash flood emergency was in place for areas downstream from Heads Creek Reservoir in western Spalding County after a dam failed, citing a local emergency manager.
Another tornado destroyed dozens of homes Sunday in LaGrange, Georgia, Troup County Emergency Management Director Zachary Steele said.
And many as 100 homes were damaged in the western Georgia city.
Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp issued a state of emergency order to provide more state resources for affected communities’ recovery.
by tyler | Mar 27, 2023 | CNN, weather
It has been an extremely active year in terms of severe weather, with well above normal numbers in terms of tornadoes, and the peak of severe weather season does not begin until this week.
The traditional peak for severe storms across the US is April, May, and June, this is also the time when the most tornadoes typically occur.
However, in 11 out of the last 13 weeks, severe weather has occurred somewhere in the Lower 48 and more severe storms are forecast later this week.
In January and February there were 178 confirmed tornadoes, the fourth most in recorded history, according to preliminary data from the Storm Prediction Center. March has remained very active and is likely to remain above normal in terms of tornadoes. Preliminary data show 296 tornado reports through March 26, which is the highest since 2017.
This week we spoke with Bill Bunting, the Chief of Forecast Operations at the Storm Prediction Center, about how intense the severe weather has been in recent months.
“There have been well over a dozen higher end severe events, that’s like enhanced risks, Level 3 of 5 or higher, just since November,” Bunting said. “It reminds me of some of the more historically active years that we’ve seen in the past.”
He told us the extremely active and wet pattern in the West is certainly related to the extremely active severe storm pattern the eastern US has been experiencing as far as large-scale atmospheric forces.
“Storm systems impacting the western US with anomalously high values of moisture resulting in lots of snow, lots of rain, tornadoes in Los Angeles, and as those systems progress east and they maintain their intensity, which too many of them have,” Bunting explained. “These very strong wind fields, very strong surface cyclones developing can contribute to heightened severe weather potential as those systems get farther east.”
While not every storm system pushing inland across the western US results in severe weather in the East, some of the strongest systems can and have. And some areas in the eastern US, such as the South, have been hit hard by severe weather event after severe weather event with very little break in between.
“For our part of the country, that we’re calling the Lower Mississippi Valley, it started back in the fall of 2022,” Michael Berry, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Shreveport, Louisiana told us. “We had one of our biggest severe weather outbreaks that I can remember in quite some time November 4. We issued two tornado emergencies for four significant tornadoes that impacted high population areas in our area.”
The storm systems have been constant since.
“We’ve been so burdened with severe weather so far in February, March, we’re just kind of worried about what April will bring,” Berry said. “April is coming at us like a freight train. And of course, it always screams severe weather across this part of the country.”
Berry tells us April is their region’s normal peak to see severe weather.
“All the right ingredients come together in April to make April typically our worst month for severe weather,” Berry said. “You have more heating, which leads to more instability, and you always have the moisture here because of our proximity to the Gulf of Mexico.”
And unfortunately, sea surface temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico are currently above normal with some areas seeing temperatures as high as the upper 70s. But it is just one ingredient, and several are needed for a severe weather event to materialize.
If the weather pattern remains active, like it has been so far this year, there could still be several more weeks of severe weather ahead.
“It’s like making a cake, all the ingredients are there, the forcing aloft, the instability due to heating and the moisture source,” Berry said. “It’s the perfect ingredients for severe weather.”
For those living and working in the storm-fatigued South, Bunting had some words of advice:
“We’re going to do our best to provide advance heads-up days into the future and it’s just really important to monitor the forecast. If you don’t have a severe weather plan, now’s the time to put one together and be ready to do it when warnings are issued for your area.”
by tyler | Mar 27, 2023 | CNN, weather
A powerful winter storm system will strengthen over the Pacific, bringing damaging winds, rain, and heavy mountain snow to an already soaked California beginning Monday night.
“Preceding storms have saturated soils which will result in trees coming down and the potential for more power outages,” National Weather Service San Francisco meteorologist Roger Grass told CNN.
In an average winter, this type of atmospheric river storm would bring beneficial precipitation to the region. But given the unprecedented amount of rain and snow California has already received this winter, the storm will only exacerbate flooding issues, bring down weakened trees and add more snow to already record levels.
Much of northern California is forecast to pick up 1-2 inches of rain, including the Bay Area, with isolated areas of higher rainfall.
Though the totals may not seem very high, many locations are already experiencing their top 10 wettest Marches on record.
“We still have road closures in the mountainous areas because of the sheer number of landslide and rockslides since we have been impacted by so many storm systems,” Grass said.
More than eight million people along the central California coast are under a slight, Level 2 of 4, risk of excessive rainfall on Tuesday, renewing the threat of flash flooding.
The heaviest precipitation is expected to spread across the state Tuesday with steady rain in the valleys and coastal communities.
Cities like Oakland, Monterey, and Big Sur are on track to hit their top three wettest Marches on record by the end of this week.
The impacts of this storm are further complicated by strong winds.
“Saturated soils plus winds makes it even easier for downed trees and power outages to occur,” the San Francisco weather service said.
More than 15 million people are under a wind advisory in California and Oregon with gusts expected between 45 and 55 mph on Tuesday.
Because of the strong winds, near whiteout conditions are possible in parts of northern California near Mt. Shasta where 1 to 3 feet of snow could fall. Winter storm warnings are already in effect for this region and other parts of California through Wednesday.
The Sacramento weather service office calls for “major mountain travel impacts” in parts of northern and central California. Up to 4 feet of snow and wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible over the Sierra Nevada, leading to difficult travel conditions.
Statewide, the snowpack in California for the Sierras is currently at 228% of its normal amount for this time of year and this storm will only increase that margin. The Southern Sierras specifically have reached record levels, while the Central Sierra likely will by the end of the winter season.
