by tyler | Jun 20, 2023 | CNN, weather
There’s a reason why these maps are called spaghetti models. Just take a look. There are lines all over the place, like a plate of spaghetti.
The simple lines actually come from some of the fastest computers in the world, making billions of computations.
Also known as spaghetti plots, these models show where a tropical system, such as a hurricane, may go.
The more they are clustered together, the higher the confidence in the forecast. When the lines are spread far apart, this can indicate uncertainty in the forecast.
No. There are different kinds of spaghetti models: dynamical models, statistical models and ensemble models.
Dynamical models require hours on a supercomputer solving physical equations of motion to produce a forecast.
Statistical models, in contrast, are based off on historical relationships between storm behavior and storm-specific details such as location and date.
Ensemble or consensus models are created by combining the forecasts from a collection of other models.
All of the models show the expected track of the storm and many also show how strong the storm will be.
Models are run and operated by governments and private companies around the world. Some are public, while others are private.
Usually, the name of the model can give away who is responsible.
Take, for example, the “Navy Global Environmental Model” which is run by the United States Navy’s Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center.
Some of the more familiar models are the American (GFS) and European (ECMWF) models run by the US government and a partnership of European countries respectively.
The combination of plotting them all on one map is done by various companies. For example, CNN uses a software company to plot the most recent models on our CNN storm tracker when tracking active storms.
The easy answer is, all the time. These models run multiple times a day and can change very quickly.
The key is to look for trends. In other words, did all the models shift to the north or south – or do most of the models show the storm moving faster?
The other is consistency. Are the plots moving north, for instance, and have they done that the last three times you looked?
While no forecast is perfect, spaghetti models do a great job at giving us an idea as to where these powerful forces of nature will go.
This helps us better prepare for when a hurricane strikes.
by tyler | Jun 19, 2023 | CNN, weather
A tropical depression has formed over the central Atlantic Ocean and will likely become a hurricane on Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center said Monday.
The center of Tropical Depression Three is a little over 1,400 miles east of the Windward Islands, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph as it tracks west at 21 mph, the National Hurricane Center announced late Monday morning.
“Environmental conditions appear conducive for strengthening over the next few days, with a much warmer than normal ocean in the depression’s path, along with plentiful mid-level moisture and light shear,” the center said.
The system is expected to become a tropical storm – named Bret – later Monday and is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday. It is still too early to tell what impacts, if any, it will have on the US mainland.
The storm could impact the Leeward or Windward islands later this week. The Leeward Islands, located where the northeastern Caribbean Sea meets the western Atlantic, include the Virgin Islands, Saint Martin, and Antigua and Barbuda. To the south are the Windward Islands: Dominica, Grenada, Martinique and others.
TRACK THE STORM
Everyone in the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands should “closely monitor updates to the forecast” and “have their hurricane plan in place,” the hurricane center tweeted Monday morning.
The storm is forecast to bring “a risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds, and dangerous storm surge and waves” as it moves across the Lesser Antilles on Thursday and Friday as a hurricane, it said.
by tyler | Jun 19, 2023 | CNN, weather
People in the South are storm weary. I’ve heard it from friends and family in my home state of Louisiana, where storms have hit exceptionally hard, and the damage extends much further.
Six tornadoes were reported in Mississippi alone in the last 24 hours, and strong storms are still in progress right now.
Tornadoes have been reported in the South every day during the last week, and more could occur in the next few days. They have caused serious damage, several deaths, and as of this morning half a million people are in the dark, according to PowerOutage.us. Making matters worse, some are expected to be without power for much of the week, leaving them without air conditioning as temperatures reach the triple digits.
The combination of power outages and dangerous heat “made this event the perfect storm,” meteorologist Michael Berry from the National Weather Service office in Shreveport said.
His region is recovering from an EF-1 tornado that hit Cass County, Texas on Friday night, along with extensive wind damage that uprooted trees and damaged power lines, littering them all over the region. He said the damage is in some ways worse than a tornado because it is so widespread.
Power crews have not been able to keep up. SWEPCO, which services Louisiana, Texas and Arkansas issued a statement late Sunday saying, “Nearly 3,000 utility professionals have now joined forces to tackle the work and rebuild communities across northwest Louisiana, east Texas and the western communities in Arkansas following the continued onslaught of extreme weather.” They added, “When you have devastation at this scale, with widespread damage that includes significant impacts to both our transmission and distribution stations the prolonged effort requires time to mobilize additional resources.”
Utility crews from as far away as Michigan and Indiana have come to the region to help rebuild the power grid.
According to Berry, straight-line winds Friday night approached 100 mph, which is what resulted in the damage to be so widespread, as well as causing damage to the power grid. He said it is the type of storm they typically only see once or twice a decade.
Another round of storms came through many of the same areas Saturday night, causing even more damage. Saturday’s round of storms produced nearly a dozen tornadoes across the South, hail greater than three inches in diameter and widespread wind reports stretching from Kansas to the Florida Panhandle. It caused even more power outages and set back power crews from getting power restored from Friday’s storms.
SWEPCO’s outages account for about 30% of the power outages across the South and some could be in the dark another week or more. It creates another concern for not only this region but for all the residents without power across the South: the heat!
Heat alerts are up for roughly 35 million people across the South, with temperatures remaining in the upper 90s to triple digits but feeling much hotter when you factor in the humidity.
“Widespread high and low temperature records are forecast to be tied or broken over the coming days,” the Weather Prediction Center said.
The heat index will be running anywhere from 115 across northern Louisiana and East Texas to close to 125 degrees across South Texas. The heat index is the “feels like” temperature when you factor in the humidity. It could be deadly for the hundreds of thousands without power.
“Our message quickly became how deadly the heat can become with the widespread power outages, encouraging people without power to try to stay cool by any means possible, drinking plenty of water, staying in the shade, relocating to friends or a family member’s home with power and AC,” Berry warned.
Many areas have opened cooling centers for those without power and in need of a place to cool off.
How to find cooling centers by state
With nighttime temperatures staying in the upper 70s to low 80s, they could be just as dangerous. Overnight is when the body needs to cool and reset, and if temperatures are staying warm overnight, we could see serious heat-related consequences as a result.
Why high overnight temperatures are so deadly
More than 50 million people are in the path of more severe weather today across the South.
A Level 2 of 5 slight risk of severe weather covers parts of the Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana to the East Coast of northern Florida. Areas possibly affected include New Orleans, Mobile and Jacksonville.
A broader area at a Level 1 of 5 marginal risk covers 40 million people and extends from central Texas to the Carolinas and down to South Florida. Cities like Austin and Fort Worth in Texas, Atlanta and Miami could face severe weather today.
“Any storm that develops will have the potential to become severe with large hail and damaging winds being the primary threats,” the weather service office in Fort Worth warned.
While tornadoes are not the primary threat today, they will also be a possibility.
The areas facing a severe threat also run the risk of excessive rainfall, which could lead to flash flooding. The storms could produce heavy downpours capable of dropping up to four inches of rain in some locations.
The severe threat continues tomorrow, before winding down for the rest of the week, giving the South a much-needed break.
by tyler | Jun 19, 2023 | CNN, weather
At least one person was killed and nearly two dozen injured in severe weather that swept Sunday night through Jasper County, Mississippi, emergency management officials said, as more than 50 million across the Southeast on Monday face the threat of more severe weather, possibly including tornadoes in some places.
A storm system spawned a reported tornado late Sunday in Mississippi, leaving injuries and structural damage around Bay Springs and Louin in Jasper County, preliminary reports from the National Weather Service indicate.
Now, the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency is assessing damage from overnight storms, the agency said, noting more than 49,000 customers have no power in the central part of the state. They are among nearly a half million from Texas and Oklahoma to Tennessee who remain in the dark amid record-breaking heat after several rounds of storms last week.
And the severe weather threat persists Monday, with a Level 2 of 5 slight risk of severe weather across parts of the Gulf Coast and the Southeast, including New Orleans and Baton Rouge in Louisiana, along with Jacksonville, Florida; Mobile, Alabama; and Savannah, Georgia. The main threats are damaging wind gusts, large hail and isolated tornadoes.
A Level 1 of 5 marginal risk stretches from central Texas to southern Florida and north to western North Carolina, leaving cities like Atlanta, Charlotte, North Carolina; Austin, Texas; and Tampa, Orlando and Miami in Florida under the threat of large hail and damaging wind gusts.
TRACK THE SYSTEM
A shelter “for all those displaced from the recent destruction of tornado activity” was set to open Monday morning, the Jasper County Sheriff’s Department said in a Facebook post. South Central Regional Medical Center in Laurel received 20 storm victims from the Louin area, including one who died, spokesperson Becky Collins told CNN Monday. The other patients are stable, she added, and most have been discharged from the hospital.
That followed several days of severe weather across the region, including a tornado last Thursday that devastated the Texas Panhandle community of Perryton, where three people – including an 11-year-old boy – were killed and more than a hundred others injured.
On Monday, the threat of excessive rainfall moves eastward to the southeastern parts of the country, bringing the threat of thunderstorms and flooding over parts of the Southeast, southern mid-Atlantic and Southern Appalachians.
The threat Monday follows more than 70 storm reports across the Southeast on Sunday, according to the Storm Prediction Center, including up to eight tornado reports, mostly in central Mississippi. Hail two inches wide or larger was also reported Sunday in Kerr County, Texas, about 65 miles northwest of San Antonio.
Meanwhile, around 35 million people are under heat alerts from a blistering heat wave that has settled across much of Texas, Louisiana and southern New Mexico and Mississippi, according to the National Weather Service.
Many are facing the heat without air conditioning with 465,000 customers without power in the South Monday morning after severe weather in recent days – including 215,000 in Oklahoma and about 85,000 in Texas and another 83,000 in Louisiana, according to PowerOutage.us.
The National Weather Service is advising residents to stay inside during the hottest part of the day, drink plenty of water and not leave children or pets in vehicles.
“In case we haven’t said it enough,” the weather service in Midland, Texas, tweeted, it’s going to be “HOT. Try to spend as little time as possible outdoors, but if you must be outside, take frequent breaks in the AC, drink plenty of water & spend as much time as possible in the shade.”
As the heat wave lingers, over 40 daily records could be tied or broken across Texas this week. The worst of the heat is expected from Monday through Wednesday.
The combination of temperature and humidity – or the heat index – could climb to 113 to 122 degrees in cities including Houston, San Antonio, Brownsville and Dallas.
Several daily heat records were already broken on Sunday. Del Rio, Texas, recorded a temperature of 111 degrees Sunday, breaking the previous daily record of 106 degrees set in 2011. Camp Mabry, in Austin, Texas, tied its record of 106 degrees set a dozen years ago and McAllen, Texas, reported a record-breaking 105 degrees.
“Temperatures in the 100s will not only rival daily high temperature marks for the nation but may tie or break existing records,” the weather service said. “There will be little relief (with) overnight with lows in the upper 70s and 80s.”
Cities across the South – some still cleaning up from last week’s storms – are preparing for hot weather by opening cooling centers.
Houston will have cooling centers open from 3 p.m. to 7 p.m. Monday as the city braces for high temperatures. Caddo Parish in Louisiana has opened additional cooling centers as it grapples with power outages and storm cleanup.
New Orleans’ emergency preparedness campaign is working with the New Orleans Fire Department to set up hydration stations to provide water and sunscreen on Sunday and Monday.
by tyler | Jun 16, 2023 | CNN, weather
More than 50 million people across a large swath of the United States are under a severe weather threat Friday, one day after storms cut a deadly path across Texas and Florida.
Three people were killed in Perryton, Texas, when a ruinous tornado slammed the town Thursday, the fire chief told CNN. The storm also sent up to 100 people in the Texas Panhandle town to the hospital with injuries ranging from head wounds to abrasions, the Ochiltree General Hospital interim CEO told CNN.
One person has died after severe weather swept through Mississippi overnight, the Mississippi Department of Emergency Management said in a release. Preliminary reports show that more than 70 homes have been damaged.
A person in Florida died after being trapped under a tree that fell on their home, Escambia County officials said.
The county, which includes Pensacola, was hit with flash flooding emergencies overnight, leading to high water rescues, the National Weather Service in Mobile, Alabama, reported early Friday, citing local rescuers.
“Widespread and significant” flash flooding was continuing in West Pensacola, Warrington and Gulf Breeze, Escambia County Emergency Management said. “Numerous roadways remain flooded with water entering several structures,” emergency officials said.
Nearly 150 residents of an apartment complex in Pensacola were moved amid the rising water Friday morning and taken to a community center for shelter, county officials said.
Warrington, just south of Pensacola, got nearly a foot of rain in just three hours. Radar estimates indicate as much as 16 inches of rain fell overnight, and more is expected Friday. A flash flood watch is in effect for the area until 7 p.m.
Many of the areas that saw severe conditions Thursday could see storms return as a level 2 of 5 slight risk of severe storms is in place for parts of the South, Mid-Atlantic and Southern Plains.
Large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes are possible in the slight risk areas, which include Montgomery and Mobile in Alabama, Little Rock, Arkansas; Jackson, Mississippi; and Tallahassee, Florida.
A marginal, level 1 of 5 risk is in place from South Dakota to Florida and for parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Cities in the marginal risk area, which could see large hail and damaging winds, include Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington, DC, Denver and Jacksonville, Florida.
The storm that swept through Perryton damaged homes and businesses in the town of some 8,000 residents, including the local fire department and EMS, as well as multiple mobile homes, Fire Chief Paul Dutcher said, noting many of the department’s trucks were damaged.
“A tornado formed, and it just dropped on us. It came out of nowhere. There were no sirens, no time to get to a shelter,” Perryton resident Jamie James said, telling CNN she had to ride out the storm in her truck.
“There was a time I thought I was going to die,” she said. “Everything went crazy. Dumpsters were flying, hailstones hitting the car.”
James’ home is still standing but the structure next to it is destroyed. She said the tornado is a devastating blow to the city she’s lived in for 15 years. “So many good people in this town. … We look out for one another.”
The city’s power facilities were shutoff for safety purposes, according to Xcel Energy.
“Transmission lines supplying the city with electricity have sustained damage and many lower voltage distribution lines are down in the city,” said Wes Reeves, a spokesperson for Xcel Energy.
“Xcel Energy personnel are working to ensure the safety of Perryton residents and first responders. An estimated time of restoration is not yet available,” he added.
As of 3 a.m. CT, more than 220,000 homes and businesses across Texas were in the dark, according to the tracking website Poweroutage.us. In neighboring Louisiana, more than 130,000 were without power, and outages were also reported in Oklahoma, Florida and Alabama.
And in Mississippi, more than 120,000 customers remain without power, according to poweroutage.us.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has deployed state emergency resources to “meet urgent life-safety needs in Perryton, Texas,” according to a news release from his office.
“We remain ready to quickly provide any additional resources needed over the course of this severe weather event,” the governor noted in the statement.
Resources from surrounding areas have poured into the city to provide much-needed assistance.
Officials in Beaver County, Oklahoma, sent fire, law enforcement and EMS units to help, according to the county’s emergency manager Keith Shadden.
Neighboring city officials in Stinnett, Texas, also began sending officers and EMS crews. The sheriff’s office in Hutchinson County — which includes Stinnett — also sent rescue and emergency operations following the “devastating tornado,” according to a Facebook post from the office.
Medical help also came from staff at nearby hospitals who swiftly aided up to 100 people after the tornado struck, Ochiltree General Hospital Interim CEO Kelly Judice said.
“A few of them took patients to their hospitals, most of the staff just stayed here and worked,” she added.
On Thursday, there were two tornado reports in Texas, four in Oklahoma and one in Michigan, according to the National Weather Service, with the tornado in Perryton being the most significant.
The tornado, which was confirmed by the NWS, cut through some of Perryton’s main sections.
“It literally hit the residential, the downtown and then the industrial as well,” storm chaser Brian Emfinger told CNN.
The worst damages he saw were in the northwest part of town, where the tornado barreled toward a mobile home park directly in its path, Emfinger explained.
“The storm produced a wall cloud very quickly, and that wall cloud tightened up very rapidly, and then it just went to the ground very quickly,” Emfinger added.
Perryton’s fire department said via Facebook that one of their buildings was severely damaged.
“The Fire Department took a direct hit, [but] our trucks and ambulances are driveable!” the fire department said.
They also shared photos showing a fire station missing its roof and debris strewn throughout the building.
On the northeast side of town, about 300 people were sheltered inside Perryton High School after the area saw extensive damages, the school’s athletic director and football coach, Cole Underwood, told CNN.
“We have the gym space, and we have the capabilities to help the people that have lost everything and we’re more than willing to do that,” he said. “Sadly, there’s just not a list of things. … You think about that you need on hand, but people lost everything today.”
US Rep. Ronny Jackson, who represents Perryton, said the community needs help.
“If you are in the area, I ask that you do whatever you can to help your neighbors. Food, fuel, water, generators – anything you can.”
by tyler | Jun 8, 2023 | CNN, weather
The wildfire smoke that originated from Canada shrouded some major US cities on the Eastern Seaboard, leaving millions at risk of breathing unhealthy air and prompting the cancellation of outdoor activities ranging from school recess to Major League Baseball games.
Beyond being a health threat, the smoky skies altered the view of some iconic landmarks, particularly in hard-hit New York City.
Here’s a sampling of those views:
