by tyler | Jun 1, 2023 | CNN, weather
Today is the first official day of the Atlantic hurricane season and it’s already off to an active start.
Thunderstorms in the Gulf of Mexico associated with an area of low pressure “have increased and become better organized during the overnight hours,” according to the National Hurricane Center, and could become a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next 48 hours.
The disturbance is expected to drift southward over the next couple of days and landfall of the storm is not expected.
If the Gulf of Mexico system does strengthen into a named tropical storm, the first name on the 2023 list is Arlene. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Thursday afternoon, NHC forecasters said.
Though the season begins Thursday, a named storm doesn’t normally develop for about three weeks. Over the last 30 years, the average first named storm has formed around June 20, according to the NHC.
Regardless of whether this storm gets a name, it will likely impact parts of the Gulf coast with locally heavy rainfall, high surf and rip currents along much of the Florida Peninsula as well as coastal regions of Mississippi and Alabama.
Hurricanes can form at any time during the warm season and late into fall, but on average they peak in the Atlantic in the early fall – which is also around the time that the strongest storms tend to make landfall in the United States.
Hurricane season ends on November 30, though there have been several instances where storms continued to form well after that date. In 2005 – the same year Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans – Hurricane Epsilon formed on November 29 and dissipated December 10. It was followed by an extremely late-season storm, Tropical Storm Zeta, that formed December 30 and lasted into January.
by tyler | Jun 1, 2023 | CNN, weather
Hurricane season begins today, and while the outlooks have called for an average season, forecasters are warning that even typical years have the potential to lash coastal states with devastating storms.
Here’s what to expect in the coming months.
CNN tracked two hurricane season outlooks this year: the forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which was released last week, and another from researchers at Colorado State University, who have been issuing seasonal forecasts for more than 37 years.
NOAA officials are predicting an average hurricane season, with 12 to 17 named tropical storms, five to nine of which could become hurricanes. They expect as many of four of those could strengthen into major hurricanes – category 3 or stronger.
Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist at Colorado State, said in April his group was predicting a slightly below-average season this year: 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
The key difference between tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes lies in their wind speeds and the level of organization within the system.
While a tropical depression represents the earliest stage of cyclone development, named tropical storms exhibit more structure and stronger winds. Hurricanes — the most powerful and dangerous of the three — possess the strongest winds and a well-defined eye, making them capable of causing extensive damage over large areas.
Read more: Hurricane categories and other terminology, explained
None of the seasonal outlooks go as far as to predict how many storms could make landfall in the Caribbean or the US. But history has shown that even in years with average or below-average storms, deadly landfalls are still possible.
Last year, for instance, was an average season, but Hurricane Ian was a catastrophe for Florida. The storm killed more than 100 people when it made landfall in September, devastated the coast around Fort Myers and caused inland flooding that lasted weeks.
Florida was then struck by Hurricane Nicole in November, which tore the beach out from under homes in Volusia County, leaving them teetering on the brink of collapse.
There have been six category 4 or 5 hurricanes to hit the mainland since 2017, the most ever during a six-year period. Climate change, especially the buildup of heat increasing the ocean’s temperature, is leading to a larger percentage of hurricanes reaching the highest categories on the scale – a trend that is likely to continue as global temperatures climb.
This hurricane season’s activity will largely depend on two competing factors: El Niño, which inhibits storm development, and near record-high ocean temperatures, which will help fuel hurricanes.
El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and tends to increase upper-level winds over the Atlantic, which disrupt and suppress hurricane formation.
El Niño’s influence on this season is still somewhat uncertain because it is only just beginning to develop. That it will eventually form this year is a “foregone conclusion,” Klotzbach told CNN last week.
But there’s another factor that could negate or even outweigh El Niño’s influence this year: Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean are already at or near record-high levels, and in a way that “matches up quite well with what we associate with active Atlantic hurricane seasons,” Klotzbach said.
“If these warm anomalies in the North Atlantic persist through the hurricane season, it has the potential to cause less of an El Niño (wind) shear impact than we normally see,” he said, and that possibility is even showing up in “several climate model forecasts” for the summer and fall.
Hurricanes are natural phenomena shaped by complex atmospheric and oceanic dynamics. But they are now increasingly influenced by human-caused climate change.
As our planet continues to warm due to fossil fuel pollution, the impacts are manifesting in the intensification and altered behavior of these destructive storms. Through a combination of warmer waters, increased atmospheric moisture and rising sea levels, the climate crisis has set the stage for hurricanes to pose unprecedented risks to coastal communities.
The World Meteorological Organization chooses hurricane names and the list rotates every six years. Names are gendered alternately through the season, and the list excludes names starting with the letters Q, U, X, Y or Z. If there are more than 21 storms in a season, the names transition to the Greek alphabet.
Some names are retired after particularly devastating storms. “Ian” and “Fiona” were retired last year, for example, and 96 names have been retired from the list since 1953.
Read more: The fascinating and controversial history behind hurricane names
Hurricanes can form at any time during the warm season and late into fall, but on average they peak in the Atlantic in the early fall – which is also around the time that the strongest storms tend to make landfall in the US.
Hurricane season ends on November 30, though there have been several instances where storms continued to form well after that date. In 2005 – the same year Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans – Hurricane Epsilon formed on November 29 and dissipated December 10. It was followed by an extremely late-season storm, Tropical Storm Zeta, that formed December 30 and lasted into January.
by tyler | May 25, 2023 | CNN, weather
Residents of Guam are dealing with damage and widespread power outages after the small US territory was walloped by hurricane-force winds and overwhelming downpours from powerful Typhoon Mawar.
Mawar’s eye passed just north of Guam Wednesday night local time, but the island was still battered by the most powerful winds and torrential rains from the storm’s eyewall, prompting its governor to urge residents to shelter in their homes until conditions were declared safe.
The storm – the strongest to impact the island in decades – was sweeping the island early Thursday with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph and gusts of up to 165 mph, the equivalent of a Category 4 Atlantic hurricane, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center said.
As the storm continues to move away from Guam, it has strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 5 Atlantic hurricane, with winds of 165 mph and gusts up to 200 mph. It’s not expected to threaten land for the next several days, the warning center said.
Mawar is the fifth storm of the year to reach this intensity, according to hurricane researcher Jeff Masters. Only five Category 5 strength storms develop each year on average, meaning 2023 has already had a year’s worth of these powerful storms – with nearly all of the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane/typhoon seasons still to come.
Later Thursday, Gov. Lou Leon Guerrero said the winds had significantly slowed and roads appeared passable but said residents should remain at home.
“We have weathered this storm. The worst has gone by, but we are going to continue experiencing tropical storm winds up to about 40 to 50 miles per hour, so I ask you again to please stay home for your protection and your safety,” Guerrero said in a video address.
The island was inundated with rain, with some areas receiving more than 20 inches over 24 hours. The northern village of Dededo saw 24.5 inches while the central west coast village of Piti had more than 22 inches.
No storm-related deaths had been reported as of 10 a.m. Thursday, according to the governor’s press secretary, Krystal Paco-San Agustin.
Though conditions are beginning to improve, the threat isn’t over. Heavy rainfall, whipping winds and strong storm surge are still possible.
Before the storm’s arrival, officials warned it could bring life-threatening storm surge and dangerous coastal flooding. Residents in low-lying coastal areas were ordered by Guerrero to evacuate as it approached.
After President Joe Biden approved an emergency declaration for Guam ahead of the typhoon, FEMA said it has more than 130 staff deployed or prepared to respond if disaster relief is needed.
The USS Nimitz Carrier Strike Group is also headed toward Guam to potentially support recovery efforts following the typhoon, two US defense officials told CNN.
Mawar will continue to move west-northwest, away from Guam, toward the northern Philippines and Taiwan. The storm is forecast to strengthen over the next 12 to 24 hours, before slowly weakening.
Guam is home to about 150,000 people and several US military installations. Super Typhoon Pongsona hit the island in 2002 with sustained winds of 144 miles per hour and gusts to 173 mph, according to the weather service.
Most of the island was without power by Wednesday afternoon, with only 1,000 of the Guam Power Authority’s approximately 52,000 customers receiving energy, the utility said.
Hazardous wind conditions made it unsafe for the utility’s crews to continue making repairs, it said.
“We are working hard to maintain the last remaining customers through the storm,” the power authority said. “Our GPA team is prepared to immediately begin restoration as soon as winds decrease to safe levels,” it said.
Guam Memorial Hospital began using a standby generator in order to continue operations, it added.
by tyler | May 24, 2023 | CNN, weather
Guam residents were urged to stay home until the island is declared safe for travel, as the strongest storm in decades brought hurricane-force winds and heavy rain to the US territory.
The eye of Typhoon Mawar passed just north of Guam, but the eyewall – the strongest part of the storm – pelted the US territory with powerful winds and heavy rain.
Guam Gov. Lou Leon Guerrero urged residents to stay at home until conditions are declared safe for travel in a Facebook address Wednesday evening.
“Stay calm, stay informed and stay safe. We will get through this storm as we have in many, many other storms,” she said.
The governor said the strongest winds from the storm were currently being felt throughout the island, particularly in the north. These conditions will likely persist until the winds begin to decrease from around 8 or 9 a.m. Thursday, she said.
The Guam International Airport recorded sustained winds of 71 mph with a gust of 105 mph Wednesday evening.
The northern third of Guam, including the village of Yigo, is being battered by the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall as the storm moves northwest.
“Mawar is now moving away from Guam,” the National Weather Service in Guam said. The center of the storm was located about 55 miles north-northeast of Guam and was moving northwest at a sluggish 8 mph, the latest tropical cyclone advisory said.
At about 1 a.m. Thursday (11 a.m. Wednesday ET) the storm’s maximum sustained winds were 140 mph with gusts up to 165 mph, the equivalent of a Category 4 Atlantic hurricane, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
“Treat these imminent extreme winds as if a tornado was approaching and move immediately to an interior room or shelter NOW!,” the weather service in Guam warned Wednesday evening.
Even though the center of the storm’s eye passed just north of Guam, most of the island has lost power.
Nearly all of Guam Power Authority’s circuits have been impacted by the storm and only about 1,000 of its 52,000 customers still had electricity, the authority said in a statement on Facebook at around 6 p.m.
Guam Memorial Hospital is currently operating on power from a standby generator, it added. “We are working hard to maintain the last remaining customers through the storm,” the power authority said. “Our GPA team is prepared to immediately begin restoration as soon as winds decrease to safe levels,” it said.
The weather service issued a typhoon warning for the island for Wednesday, and flash flood and coastal flood warnings until Thursday morning.
In anticipation of high storm surge and potentially catastrophic coastal flooding, Guam Gov. Lou Leon Guerrero issued an executive order Tuesday mandating the evacuation of low-lying coastal areas.
“When sea levels rise, residents will have merely minutes to evacuate and respond. Thus, we must prepare now and anticipate the worst,” the governor’s office said in a release.
President Joe Biden approved an emergency declaration for the island on Tuesday, and FEMA announced it has more than 50 emergency relief personnel and dozens of other federal partners ready to provide emergency assistance on the ground.
Mawar threatens “torrential rains that may result in landslides and flash flooding, catastrophic wind, and life-threatening storm surge,” the weather service said Wednesday morning.
Mawar’s slow forward pace of about 8 mph could exacerbate the impacts of wind and bring greater amounts of rainfall to the island than a faster-moving storm.
The storm could bring between 15 to 20 inches of rain with even higher local amounts possible, the weather service said. The downpour will likely trigger landslides, overflow rivers and streams and bring flooding to areas that don’t normally see such events.
While the storm surge is expected to be lower than initially feared, as the center of the storm passed just north and kept the worst of the surge north of the island, ocean levels 4 to 6 feet above normal high tides are still possible, the weather service warned.
Maximum observed wave heights over the ocean were a towering 40 feet high.
Storm surge deaths are historically the leading cause of hurricane-related fatalities within the United States, according to the weather service.
Officials have warned the storm will bring devastating impacts to the island’s residents, infrastructure and landscape.
Extensive roof and structure damage is possible due to pummeling winds, especially for buildings that are not reinforced with concrete.
“Electricity and water may be unavailable for days and perhaps weeks after the storm passes” and “most trees will be snapped or uprooted,” the local weather service warned.
Between 50-70% of Guam’s vegetation could experience defoliation – the unnatural removal of much of a plant’s leaves and foliage, the weather service said.
Human-caused climate change is contributing to an upward trend intense storms like Typhoon Mawar. Not only are these systems generating more rainfall and larger storm surge – they are also more likely to be stronger and are intensifying faster, CNN has reported.
Mawar rapidly intensified from Monday into Tuesday, with top wind speeds increasing by 50 mph in just 18 hours. Scientists have warned that the rapid intensification of tropical cyclones – like typhoons and hurricanes – is more likely as ocean temperatures climb and lay the groundwork for cyclones to explode at breakneck pace into deadly storms.
The storm is “one that will be remembered for decades,” said Landon Aydlett, the warning coordination meteorologist for the weather service in Guam.
Mawar is the strongest storm to impact Guam – home to about 150,000 people, as well as several US military installations – in decades. Super Typhoon Pongsona hit Guam in 2002 with sustained winds of 144 miles per hour and gusts to 173 mph, according to the weather service.
Super Typhoon Karen, widely regarded as the worst storm to ever hit the island, struck in 1962 with sustained winds of 172 mph.
Though Guam sits in the West Pacific Ocean – an area prone to the world’s strongest tropical cyclones – it is extremely rare for the island to be struck directly by a storm of this strength. Hitting the small island amid the expansive Pacific Ocean is like threading a tiny needle. Only eight storms of this strength have passed directly over it in the last 75 years.
by tyler | May 22, 2023 | CNN, weather
Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1, but weather does not always follow the calendar and forecasters are already monitoring a system in the Atlantic this week.
The National Hurricane Center has highlighted an area of showers and thunderstorms northeast of the central Bahamas with a low chance of developing into a tropical system over the next 2 to 7 days.
Despite sea surface temperatures across much of the Atlantic, including near the Bahamas, being about 1 to 2 degrees Celsius above normal, the system has an uphill battle if it were to develop into a tropical depression or storm.
“Strong upper-level winds and dry air are expected to prevent development while the system moves generally, north northeastward at 5 to 10 mph over the southwestern Atlantic during the next day or so,” the hurricane center said.
However, it is a good reminder hurricane season is right around the corner and now is a good time to review your hurricane plans if you live along the coast or in a flood prone region.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced it will be issuing its first forecast Thursday for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season.
You can check back here for NOAA’s hurricane season outlook later this week
Colorado State University released its first forecast for the season back in April and are calling for slightly below-average activity, in large part due to current neutral conditions for the El Niño Southern Oscillation.
The oscillation is a reoccurring climate pattern originating across the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean which affects weather across the globe and has three phases; neutral, El Niño, and La Niña.
Conditions are not expected to remain neutral for long, as El Niño is expected to develop in the Pacific over the next couple of months, according to the Climate Prediction Center.
“How quickly El Niño sets in could have significant impacts on how hurricane season unfolds, as it is one of the primary weather patterns affecting tropical seasons in the Atlantic and Pacific,” CNN Meteorologist Brandon Miller said. “You can’t accurately predict this hurricane season without accurately predicting when and how intense El Niño will get by this fall.”
According to the climate center “a potentially significant El Niño is on the horizon.”
El Niño traditionally inhibits hurricane activity in the Atlantic, whereas La Niña or neutral conditions create a more favorable environment for tropical storm development.
“A big wild card with this season, though, is the extremely warm Atlantic that we have,” Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University told us. “If these warm anomalies persist through the hurricane season, it has the potential to cause less of a shear impact than we normally see.”
Shear is the change of wind speed and direction with height. The more shear you have, the more it disrupts tropical systems from forming.
Klotzbach has been closely monitoring several climate models and he tells us at least three of the main models are expecting a moderate to strong El Niño to develop this summer or into the fall, but the same models are only forecasting slightly above normal shear.
The absence of strong shear conditions combined with very warm ocean temperatures across the Atlantic may indicate, despite El Niño, this year’s Atlantic hurricane season may be more active than traditional El Niño years.
Only time will tell.
However, many meteorologists will tell you it only takes one hurricane landfall to impact your area to make for an active season.
by tyler | May 12, 2023 | CNN, weather
More than 50 high temperature records could be broken through Monday as heat builds across the western US and Canada.
Temperatures will run as much as 25 degrees above normal, with temperatures possibly hitting 90 degrees this weekend or early next week in Seattle.
If this happens, this would be the earliest 90-degree day on record for Seattle.
Areas around Portland, Oregon, could be in record-breaking territory for four days straight, from Friday through Monday, with highs expected to climb into the 90s.
“A strong upper-level dome of high pressure will entrench itself across the Pacific NW and British Columbia this weekend,” CNN meteorologist Derek Van Dam said. “It’s really the perfect set-up for those who love summer warmth because the winds near the ground will turn offshore throughout the weekend allowing for dry, downsloping winds to spike temperatures well above average.”
Roughly 12 million people in the US are under heat alerts, including residents of western Washington, western Oregon, portions of northern California and the San Joaquin Valley.
“Temperatures in the mid to high 90’s are expected to start tomorrow and will continue through next week, with Sunday and Monday being the warmest days in the high 90’s and possibly reaching the triple digits for the first time this year,” the National Weather Service office in Hanford, California, said, about Saturday’s forecast.
The hot temperatures in the Valley will translate into hot temperatures in higher elevations too, resulting in melting snow.
“This will cause rivers and streams to run high and possibly flood. Be cautious around these rivers and streams as they will be running high and fast, and will also be very cold,” the weather service office in Hanford warns.
Overnight temperatures will also stay much warmer than normal, which won’t allow the body the relief it needs from the extreme heat. This could exacerbate heat illnesses for those without air conditioning.
The heat will stretch as far north as Canada through the weekend as well. The Canadian weather agency, Environment Canada, has issued a special weather statement warning of the extreme temperatures for portions of British Columbia and Alberta.
Temperatures will be running as much as 25 to 30 degrees above normal for some locations, reaching as high as the low 90s, which will make the ongoing wildfire problem even worse.
Nearly 150 wildfires are burning across Canada, 82 of which are in Alberta. The province is getting off to one of its fastest starts to the wildfire season this year, with roughly 1.1 million acres already burned to date.
“The last time Alberta had this fast of a start to the wildfire season was 2016,” Provincial Information Officer for Alberta Wildfire, Josée St-Onge, told CNN.
By this date in 2016, 488 wildfires had burned more than 1.2 million acres. By comparison, so far this year we have seen 426 wildfires, which have burned nearly 1.1 million acres.
The wildfire smoke now covers much of Canada and has even entered the Northeast US. Portions of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast are under air quality alerts, including Washington, DC and Philadelphia, as the smoke particles will be unhealthy for sensitive groups.
May is a very busy month for wildfires across Canada, and the season typically continues through the summer. If the current pace continues in Alberta, 2023 could break into the top 5 years for acreage burned by next week, with still much of the fire season remaining.
These are the five years with the most burned acreage in Alberta:
This hot air is isolated in the West, as of now. Across the foothills and Rockies, temperatures will be quite different, running 15 to 25 degrees below normal.
