by tyler | Apr 27, 2023 | CNN, weather
The potential for severe weather in the South will continue through the rest of the week, as nearly 50 million people face strong storm threats.
A level 2 out of 5 “slight risk” of severe weather exists for portions of the Gulf Coast, Southeast coast and mid-South, according to the Storm Prediction Center, with cities like Jacksonville, Florida, Memphis, Tennessee and Orlando, Florida, included in the risk area.
The main severe weather threats for Thursday evening are damaging winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes.
There’s a broader level 1 out of 5 “marginal risk” of severe weather that includes nearly 20 million people from areas of Arkansas to Florida. This area includes cities like Tampa, Florida and Birmingham, Alabama.
There’s also a threat for flash flooding across the Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Places like New Orleans, Mobile, Alabama, and Pensacola, Florida, could experience torrential rainfall that could lead to flash flooding.
“Upwards of 3 to 6 inches of rain will be possible in isolated locations,” said the National Weather Service office in New Orleans.
On Friday, severe weather will strike again as another storm system moves across the South. Over 50 million people will be under the threat of storms, including giant hail and tornadoes.
Tornado watch vs tornado warning
The storm center has issued a level 3 out of 5 “enhanced risk” of severe weather for portions of East Texas, including the Dallas area.
“We will wrap up the week with another round of showers and storms as a strong system moves across our region on Friday,” said the NWS office in Fort Worth, Texas. “Large hail to potentially very large (2+ inches) hail and damaging winds will be the main threats, with isolated tornadoes possible.”
How hail is formed
This threat comes on the heels of Wednesday night’s severe weather that brought softball-sized hail to portions of Texas.
There’s is a broader risk of severe weather that extends from portions of southern Oklahoma to south Texas. Cities like Houston, San Antonio and Austin are included in this level 2 out of 5 “slight risk” of severe weather.
This area will have a significant hail threat as well, some potentially up to 2 inches in diameter, as well as damaging winds.
Additionally, two level 1 out of 5 “marginal risk” areas of severe weather will impact nearly 40 million people across portions of the South Friday. One area is from southern Oklahoma to south Texas. The other area covers much of the Southeast and includes cities like Miami, Jacksonville, Florida, Raleigh, North Carolina, and Charlotte, North Carolina.
Along with the threat of scattered thunderstorms, very heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be a concern.
“Three day storm rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected with locally higher 3 to 6 inch amounts possible, most of which will help the current drought conditions across NE FL/SE GA, but will likely produce some temporary localized flooding conditions and possible significant river rises in some basins,” said the NWS office in Jacksonville, Florida.
By Saturday, most of the severe weather will be winding down. However, a level 1 out of 5, “marginal risk” for severe weather will hang around along the Gulf Coast.
While there’s still some uncertainty in the forecast, places like New Orleans, Montgomery, Alabama and Tallahassee, Florida, could see damaging winds, hail and even an isolated tornado.
Get the latest forecast here
by tyler | Apr 25, 2023 | CNN, weather
Twenty river gauges are in major flood stage across the Midwest, with more potentially damaging flooding expected in the coming days and weeks as the snow from this year’s blockbuster season continues to melt.
This year’s river rise could lead to some of the worst flooding in 20 years in some places, with most river gauges in major flood stage along the Mississippi River from St. Paul, Minnesota, to Davenport, Iowa. It follows this winter’s relentless parade of storms soon after the Mississippi River near Memphis had dropped to record low levels from drought.
Now, the Mississippi River at La Crosse, Wisconsin, is forecast to crest near 16.1 feet Wednesday into Thursday – which would be its third-highest crest there and not far off the record of 17.89 feet set in April 1965. At 16 feet, “water is within one foot of Rose Street near Interstate 90, and the eastbound I-90 exit may be closed,” the National Weather Service said.
Some homes and businesses along Davenport’s riverfront already have taken on water, and the worst is yet to come, Mayor Mike Matson told CNN. Roads also could close there, he said, as flooding threatens towns all along the Mississippi River.
“We’re expecting a pretty good crest in a week,” Matson said Tuesday. “Whether it’s a record crest or close to a record, there’s not definitive answers yet. But it doesn’t really matter for us because we fight the river.”
Near Davenport, the Mississippi River is already at major flood stage, topping 18 feet with perhaps another 3 feet to go by early next week – which would be just a foot shy of that all-time record. Several gauges to the north, near Dubuque, Iowa, also are forecast early next week to reach their third-highest crest ever, behind 1965 and the river floods in 2001, the local weather service office said.
“We’ve used the lessons learned and the forensic analysis that the (US Army) Corps of Engineers gave us to set the barriers and set the pumps, and we have public works people doing 24/7 shifts,” Matson said. “We’re fully engaged, so we’ll see where Mother Nature and the Mississippi decides to go.”
Flood warnings now are in place for rivers in the Upper Midwest from the US-Canadian border to north of St. Louis, and such warnings extend more than 400 miles along the Mississippi River alone.
As much of the snow has melted in the Upper Midwest, the resulting swell of water upstream will creep south, causing a slow rise and fall of gauges. In the next few days, nearly 15 more gauges will be added to the list of those in major flood stage as the snowmelt causes a slow rise in the rivers downstream.
“It takes time for that water to make it to the river. It’s not all going into the river all at once. It’s just a longer process,” said Caleb Grunzke, meteorologist with the Twin Cities weather service office.
Unlike flash flooding, which can happen in seconds, seasonal spring river flooding is gradual, though last week’s relative heat wave across the Midwest – with temperatures in the mid-80s to 90 degrees – will “just accelerate the melting,” he said.
“It’s above freezing the whole day, so snow is continually melting over that whole week and you’re getting lots of runoff into the rivers very quickly,” Grunzke explained.
Much cooler temperatures – with dips below freezing overnight – have settled in this week, melting the snow more gradually and “slow(ing) down the amount of runoff that goes into the rivers,” he said.
Several cities in the Upper Midwest this winter have seen exceptional snowfall:
• Duluth, Minnesota, broke its highest seasonal snowfall last week;
• Minneapolis is experiencing its third-highest season snowfall;
• Madison, Wisconsin, is sitting at its eighth-highest snowfall for the season.
All that snow, too, will melt and contribute to the expended deluge downstream in the coming weeks and months.
by tyler | Apr 20, 2023 | CNN, weather
More severe storms are threatening some 50 million people from Texas to Wisconsin after the same system left at least three people dead in Oklahoma, with a dozen tornadoes reported across three states and search-and-rescue still underway in some places.
The toll of two fatalities, plus injuries, in Cole near Oklahoma City could climb as damage assessments continue, Deputy Scott Gibbons with the McClain County Sheriff’s Office told CNN. First responders have gotten reports of people trapped in shelters, and teams are searching systematically across a 10-miles path must navigate roads littered with downed power lines and debris, he added.
Someone hurt in Pottawatomie County in central Oklahoma also died at a hospital, Gibbons said.
Get the latest on your forecast here
The same system that spawned Wednesday’s severe storms is heading east Thursday, with rain, hail, damaging winds and some tornadoes and flash flooding possible. Areas from the hill country of Texas to southern Illinois – including Dallas, Houston and Chicago, plus Little Rock, Arkansas; Shreveport, Louisiana; and Jefferson City and Springfield, Missouri – face a Level 2 out of 5 “slight risk” of severe weather, the Storm Prediction Center said.
Wednesday’s worst storms were reported across Oklahoma – where eight tornadoes have been confirmed by the National Weather Service office in Norman – while Kansas and Iowa also were hit. About 17,000 homes and businesses in Oklahoma had no power midday Thursday.
A reported tornado in Cole, home to more than 600 people about 30 miles south of Oklahoma City, appears to have been one of the most significant. To resident Barry Harbison, it felt like a roller-coaster when the storm lifted his trailer home off the ground and tossed it – while he was stuck in it, he said.
“I stayed in the bathroom and (the storm) picked up the whole trailer and moved it,” Harbison told CNN affiliate KOCO.
The National Weather Service in Norman, Oklahoma, plans to survey Cole, Shawnee and the Etowah-Pink-Stella area Thursday.
In addition to nine reports of tornadoes in Oklahoma, four tornado reports were recorded in Iowa and three in Kansas on Wednesday; of those, two tornadoes in Iowa and one in Kansas were preliminarily confirmed.
About 60 miles east of Cole, a large and very dangerous tornado traipsed through Shawnee, a city of about 30,000 people in Pottawatomie County. The storm was moving erratically north of the city around 10 p.m. Wednesday, the National Weather Service in Norman said.
Shawnee Public Schools canceled classes Thursday, the district announced on Facebook.
More than 30 residents at Brookdale Senior Living, an assisted living facility in Shawnee, Oklahoma, were evacuated after the building’s windows were blown out and water seeped inside, according to Shelee Stewart, the executive director.
“We’ve been blessed everybody is alive,” Stewart told KOCO, noting there were no major injuries.
Stewart described the staff who helped guide residents to the bathrooms while the storm passed as “heroes,” adding some had minor scratches.
As crews spread out in the county to respond to the storms, the Pottawatomie County emergency management agency warned residents not to leave their homes to observe the damage, noting that hinders response efforts.
“There is tremendous amounts of ponding on areas storms have come through so please do not drive through the water!” the agency said.
“Our county was hit hard and it will take a while for every area to be checked,” the agency later said.
“If you can, check on your neighbors, but be mindful of potential gas leaks and possibly downed power lines,” Shawnee Police said Wednesday evening in a Facebook post.
Oklahoma Baptist University in Shawnee also canceled classes Thursday and Friday after urging students to avoid being outdoors. No injuries were reported, but the campus was significantly damaged, the university said.
“Authorities are advising students to stay in their housing units through the night,” due to downed power lines and scattered debris, the school said.
The main threats from Thursday’s severe weather will be large hail and strong winds – and tornadoes can’t be ruled out.
“The areas of most concern are eastern North Texas (including the DFW Metro) and much of Central Texas, though areas east of I-35 will see the higher likelihood for severe storms,” said the National Weather Service in Fort Worth.
Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding in some locations. Most areas will see 1 to 3 inches of rain, with more in isolated spots.
There is also a much broader Level 1 out of 5 “marginal risk” of storms Thursday from South Texas to the Midwest, including Memphis, Tennessee.
These areas could also see strong winds, damaging hail and an isolated tornado.
by tyler | Apr 17, 2023 | CNN, weather
Over the weekend, Twitter reversed course on what would have been a bad idea. And yes, it revolves around weather.
Since Elon Musk took over, the company has received mostly bad press, and this week’s Weather Brief was going to be about another controversial decision.
But over the weekend, a surprise reversal caused many in the weather community to breathe a collective sigh of relief.
In February, Twitter announced it would limit the number of tweets that can be sent from automated accounts, unless they pay extra, in a move it said was intended to “increase quality, reduce spam, and enable a thriving ecosystem.”
The change would have a huge impact on the National Weather Service and other weather entities using automated tweets to send crucial weather alerts, like tornado warnings.
“The reason the automation exists is so that the people at the office don’t have to worry about redundantly issuing a tornado warning, then going on to Twitter, and then retyping the same thing,” Daryl Herzmann explained. Herzmann is a systems analyst for Iowa Environmental Mesonet and helped create the automation software used on Twitter.
The real-time nature of Twitter is appealing to users when getting lifesaving warnings out on social media, versus a platform like Facebook which could, using algorithms, pop up a post from four days before, and cause confusion in a weather-type scenario.
Herzmann explained Twitter was going to only allow 50 automated tweets in a 24-hour period. To put it in perspective, his account issued about 16,000 automated tweets on a slow weather day and issued 28,000 on April 4, the day the Midwest was hit with nearly 30 tornado reports.
“Without this automated process, it would take minutes for forecasters to manually prepare warning information into a tweet. For every warning issued, seconds could make the difference between life and death,” said NOAA in a statement to CNN.
Many of the weather service offices took to Twitter, including the weather service’s tsunami alert account, explaining the situation and urging people to make sure they have other ways to receive weather warnings.
Twitter, which laid off much of its public relations team after Musk took over last year, did not respond to a request for comment.
“Since Elon has basically gutted all the employees, it’s impossible to interact with them at a technical level,” explained Herzmann. “It’s very frustrating.”
Twitter originally said there would be no exceptions to its ruling to limit the number of automated tweets. But in a surprising move over the weekend, Twitter has reversed course, saying in a tweet “Twitter will allow the National Weather Service accounts to continue Tweeting weather alerts without limits.” The move highlights the importance of weather alerts. Weather warnings save lives.
It is a huge win for the weather community, and maybe a sign Twitter is listening.
“When the NWS issues a warning, it means there is an imminent threat of hazardous weather. Minutes, even seconds, can make a difference between life a death,” said Alexandra Kelly, a Regional Warning Coordination Meteorologist for the weather service. “The quicker that people receive weather warnings, the quicker they can take action to protect themselves and their families.”
“I am glad Twitter reversed course and made an exception for the vital services provided by the National Weather Service,” Herzmann told CNN after he heard the news. “It does continue to be of concern that Twitter can make wild changes like this and not fully consider the implications of their changes.”
Herzmann’s account, which sends automated tweets, still has restrictions but he remains hopeful Twitter will reconsider his accounts as well.
While Twitter is just one way people can receive alerts, it is important to make sure you have multiple ways to receive important weather information. Whichever way you rely on to get severe weather alerts, make sure they will wake you up if you are sleeping.
The two best ways to receive weather information:
by tyler | Apr 13, 2023 | CNN, weather
Summerlike heat will continue to build across the Midwest and Northeast through Friday, as temperatures soar to as much as 30 degrees above normal.
Nearly 90 daily records could be broken on Thursday and Friday, mainly across the Midwest and Northeast, and at least 50 record-high minimum temperatures could be set.
This comes after more than 35 daily record highs were broken on Wednesday from Nebraska to Delaware.
Sioux Falls, South Dakota, hit 92 degrees on Wednesday, shattering its old record of 85 set in 1908. Twin Cities, Minnesota, also broke a record after reaching a high of 88 degrees.
As an area of high pressure continues to build in the region, this will allow for temperatures to continue to warm and dry conditions to prevail.
“The dry airmass in place makes it quite easy to overachieve on highs and it is certainly possible that we approach 90 again in La Crosse,” the National Weather Service office in La Crosse, Wisconsin, said.
If La Crosse hits 90, that would shatter their old record of 80 degrees.
The heat will stretch as far as the Northeast and parts of New England, with New York City expected to top out in the mid-80s, which will come close to tying or breaking records for Thursday and Friday.
Cities including Chicago, Philadelphia, Washington and even Boston could set records this week.
“Most areas away from Cape Cod, the immediate south coast and the North Shore should see their first 80 degree day since Sept/Oct 2022, and it is not out of the question that the Hartford and Springfield CT Valley areas could get very close to or reach 90,” the weather service office in Boston said.
Overnight lows are also staying warm, which doesn’t allow for much recovery from the heat. More than 75 record-high minimum temperatures could be set by Saturday morning.
Warm temperatures, along with low humidity levels and gusty winds, will create an elevated risk of wildfires.
The weather service is warning of an elevated fire risk while the record warmth and dry conditions persist.
“Fine fuels in the form of dry or dead vegetation will be quite dry as well, and conducive to fire starts and fairly quick fire spread,” the weather service office in Mount Holly, New Jersey, warned. “This is particularly true in areas that have not received hardly any rainfall in the last 10 days, across much of Pennsylvania to northern and central New Jersey.”
Winds could gust as high as 35 mph, which will cause any fire that forms to spread quickly.
A wildfire has already broken out in New Jersey this week. The fire is now 75% contained, but it has already scorched roughly 4,000 acres and forced evacuations.
by tyler | Apr 13, 2023 | CNN, weather
Fort Lauderdale experienced the rainiest day in its history Wednesday – a 1-in-1,000-year rainfall event – sparking a flash flood emergency in Broward County that has prompted emergency rescues, forced drivers to abandon cars, shuttered schools and shut down the airport through 5 a.m. Friday. And more rain is on the way.
The region recorded widespread rainfall totals of more than a foot, while Fort Lauderdale tallied 25.91 inches in a 24-hour period, according to preliminary reports from the National Weather Service office in Miami.
While the rain Thursday won’t reach nearly the amounts that fell on Wednesday, it will be problematic and create additional flooding, the National Weather Service said. Gusty winds, small hail and even isolated tornadoes are possible.
A flood warning is in effect for portions of Broward County until noon Thursday. A flood watch is in effect through Thursday evening.
Between 14 and 20 inches of rain have drenched the greater Fort Lauderdale metro area since Wednesday afternoon, according to a Thursday morning update from the National Weather Service office in Miami. The deluge is the “most severe flooding that I’ve ever seen,” one mayor said.
“This amount of rain in a 24-hour period is incredibly rare for South Florida,” said meteorologist Ana Torres-Vazquez from the weather service’s Miami forecast office.
Rainfall of 20 to 25 inches is similar to what the area can receive with a high-end hurricane over more than a day, Torres-Vazquez explained. She described the rainfall as a “1-in-1,000 year event, or greater,” meaning it’s an event so intense, the chance of it happening in any given year is just 0.1%.
During the peak of Wednesday’s deluge, a month’s worth of rain fell in just one hour. Fort Lauderdale’s average rainfall for April is 3 inches and it’s been nearly 25 years since the city totaled 20 inches of rain in an entire month.
Extreme rainfall is a signature consequence of a warming climate, and it is happening more frequently. The deluge in South Florida is just the latest instance after 1-in-1000 year rains struck over the past year in areas including Dallas, St. Louis, eastern Kentucky and Yellowstone.
“Even though the heavy rain has concluded, numerous roads remain closed,” the weather service said, adding that flooding is expected to persist.
Earlier, Fort Lauderdale was “experiencing severe flooding in multiple areas of the city,” Fort Lauderdale Fire Rescue said on social media, warning to stay off the roads as vehicles may become stuck or submerged.
A flash flood emergency – the highest level of flood warning – that was in effect for portions of South Florida, including Fort Lauderdale, expired early Thursday.
City crews in Hollywood, Florida, “are doing everything they can” to deploy pumps wherever possible and keep drains clear, Mayor Josh Levy told CNN.
“We’ve recorded over 12 inches of rain since midnight, and that’s on top of consecutive days of seemingly nonstop rain,” Levy said. “The ground was already saturated so there is extensive flooding all over our city and throughout South Florida. Many roadways are impassable. Lots of vehicles got stuck and left abandoned in the middle of our roadways.
“I’ve lived here my whole life. This is the most severe flooding that I’ve ever seen,” he said.
South Florida could get inundated with more even rain as showers and strong storms are in the forecast Thursday.
“After a historic day of rainfall across portions of South Florida that many of us will not soon forget, another potential wet day is ahead for today,” the weather service in Miami said.
There is a slight risk, Level 2 of 5, for severe storms Thursday in parts of Florida, including Fort Lauderdale, Miami and Jacksonville, according to the Storm Prediction Center.
In Fort Lauderdale, airboats and high-clearance buggies have been secured from the county sheriff’s office and the Florida Wildlife Commission as officials activated their emergency operations center and will issue a proclamation of a local state of emergency, they said in a statement early Thursday.
Emergency crews worked continuously overnight responding to rescue calls across South Florida, Fort Lauderdale city officials said.
“City Hall remains closed. The ground floor is flooded, and staff is working to restore power to the building,” said a Thursday morning update.
City officials are asking neighbors to be patient as “flooding conditions remain impactful in the southern areas of the City this morning,” officials said.
“We expect the flooding to subside through the next hours and have seen improvements in certain areas of downtown.”
Fort Lauderdale Fire Rescue crews received over 900 calls for service during overnight flooding, according to Fort Lauderdale Mayor Dean Trantalis.
The Broward Sheriff’s Office assisted the agency in 300 rescue calls received during the historic flooding event, according to the mayor.
“There is not one area of this city that has not been impacted,” Trantalis said.
Officials had asked residents to avoid driving or traveling in Fort Lauderdale amid the storms.
“Public Works staff are clearing drains and operating pumps to mitigate the water as quickly as possible. Efforts have been made to relieve traffic congestion through prioritized signaling to assist individuals leaving the City. We are requesting drivers to stay off the roads and avoid the City of Fort Lauderdale until the water has subsided,” the city of Fort Lauderdale said in a news release on Wednesday evening.
“Because of the extreme amount of water, most areas will need to drain naturally,” Trantalis said. “Crews are out in neighborhoods clearing storm drains to aid water receding from neighborhoods. Vacuum trucks are being deployed strategically throughout the city.”
The Florida Highway Patrol has closed several exits on Interstate 95 in Fort Lauderdale, the city’s fire department said.
In Coral Gables in Miami-Dade County, officials are working on two water main breaks, according to the Coral Gables Police Department.
Some roads in the city are shut down due to the flooding, while others have limited travel, police said, noting residents should give themselves extra time to commute to work.
The Broward Sheriff’s Office said in a statement Wednesday it is “being inundated with non-emergency 911 calls regarding the inclement weather” and asks residents to use 911 only for “true emergencies,” also telling residents to avoid driving and to call a tow truck company if a vehicle is stranded and not in an emergency.
Some local services are shuttering Thursday. The Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport is closed due to ongoing flooding in the vicinity and will reopen at noon, according to an update from the airport. The airport’s departure level reopened to allow people to exit the area, the airport said early Thursday morning.
The Brightline train service has been temporarily suspended between Miami and Fort Lauderdale, the service said on social media.
Additionally, Broward County Public Schools announced the district will be closed Thursday.
“No city could have planned for this,” Trantalis said.
Trantalis says he has spoken to the White House and Senator Marco Rubio about the situation
The mayor said Governor Ron “DeSantis has not yet called but I’m sure he is very interested in what’s going on here.”
